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President Trump’s gift to Al Shabaab

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by Marie Blessing Gilbert

US Troops in Somalia. Source: Commondreams

On the 4th of December last, the withdrawal of approximately 700 US troops and assets from Somalia was announced by the Pentagon. Some of these numbers will be deployed outside of East Africa whilst the rest will be repositioned in countries neighbouring Somalia. For decades Somalia has been devasted as a result of wars and famines. The burden carried by its people has been huge. Assistance from the US forces in Somalia in attempting to stabilise the country is vital if any hope of a better tomorrow is ever to be achieved.

Al Shabaab is an Al Qaeda linked militant group in Somalia whose aim is to establish a caliphate in Somalia that would in turn spread to neighbouring countries in the ‘Horn of Africa’ and beyond. They are not the only extremist group in Somalia, ISIS too has a footing there, however they are the primary source of terrorist offences in the Horn of Africa.

US troops have been present in Somalia since the early 1990s when at its height, there were approximately 25,000 troops assisting UN aid workers in humanitarian and peacekeeping missions. This number was critically cut soon after by President Bill Clinton, and has dwindled since, to the 700 that were removed from Somalia in the last days of the Trump Administration.

The timing of the decision couldn’t be worse. Somalia has already missed the deadline of its general election which was due this month. Presidential elections are due to take place in February 2021. Tensions always run high in East Africa on the run up to and in the aftermath of elections. Anxiety in Somalia, which has been decimated for years at the hands of warlords and terrorist groups like Al Shabaab will hit a pinnacle soon. Pre- and post-election violence is expected no matter what the result of either election is due to the power struggle between elected officials, opponents, jihadist groups and clan elders. It is widely believed that the Somali security forces and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) are not prepared to deal with a further escalation of violence within the country. Al Shabaab, as the most powerful jihadi extremist group in Somalia, is set to capitalise in the strife that will ensue.

Further to this, Somalia’s current fragile governmental system has long been aided by troops from neighbouring Ethiopia as part of AMISOM. Ethiopia has approximately 4000 troops currently in Somalia. However published reports have shown hundreds of Tigrayans troops forming part of this number have had their weapons seized by Ethiopian troops loyal to the government in Addis Ababa as a result of the current conflict between Tigrayan and Ethiopian forces in Ethiopia. Should AMISOM forces get distracted in any way from their peacekeeping mission in Somalia a vacuum will be created where militants can thrive even further than they do already. Somalia and Ethiopia have a long, porous border and traditionally strong ties. If the conflict in Ethiopia continues or escalates Somalia will undoubtedly suffer as a consequence.

To add to the problems of this highly vulnerable state the announcement that the US will remove their troops from within Somalia’s borders in weeks will further weaken the security forces in Somalia. The brunt of the American withdrawal is expected to be felt by the Somali commando force, Danab that was set up in 2014 as an elite force of combatants. Danab was established largely with US financial help, training and equipment. Its primary aim was that of a counter terrorist force in the country. Accompanied on many missions by US forces, Danab will surely be left to fend for itself when its US counterparts leave Somalia. Given they have worked together closely for 6 years it will, without doubt be a devastating blow to the Somali counter-terrorism efforts.

Al Shabaab members in Somalia. Source: Independent.ie

Leading politicians in Somalia and neighbouring countries have been left alarmed by the Pentagon’s announcement with Somalia’s President, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed expressing deep concern that the efforts to counter terrorism in the region were aided hugely by the existing US-Somali partnership. In Neighbouring Kenya, Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary, Kamau Macharia, has opined that the situation will worsen in Somalia after the US withdrawal. It had already been announced that AMISOM troops were to work towards a full withdrawal of their troops from Somalia by the end of 2021, with graduated withdrawal already underway. Should this take place on top of US withdrawal the future looks very bleak for this extremely fragile and volatile state.

It seems that everything is happening at once to hinder any hopes that Somalia has to rise from the ashes of decades-long conflict. Somalia’s loss will be Al Shabaab’s gain and undoubtedly Trump’s final actions as he leaves the White House to withdraw his forces from Somalia will have devastating effects. The final withdrawal of troops was completed just two days before the inauguration of Joe Biden as President. The hope would be that President Biden will reverse this decision. However, with the troops already out of Somalia and even the uncertainly surrounding Trump’s decision will unquestioningly strengthen Al Shabaab’s resolve and can be seen as Trump’s parting gift to these jihadi extremists.

Marie Blessing Gilbert is currently studying full time for a Masters degree in Terrorism, Security and Society in King’s College London with an interest in the terrorism threat in Ireland and East Africa.

Marie is a part of the Strife Women in Writing Programme.

Strife Series on Climate Change and Conflict (Part I) - Climate Change and the Rise of Islamist Terror: al-Shabaab in Somalia

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by Annabelle Green

Illicit charcoal trading, and deforestation that lies in its wake, is threatening an already fragile climate in Somalia (Image credit: Getty Images/AFR/T. Karumba)

In June 1989, a gathering of British, American, and Canadian bureaucrats in Wilton Park, England left little impression on history. At the conference, despite being titled ‘Sub-Saharan Africa: The Challenge of Population Growth, Desertification and Famine,’ only a handful of African representatives were present. Somalia did not feature significantly within the discussion, save for its involvement as one-sixth of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Drought and Development.

At a time when agriculture was the primary occupation of the Somali labour force - seventy-one per cent in 1975 - the country was vulnerable to the key issues discussed. Adversities they faced, such as droughts and subsequent famines, were only exacerbated by a growing population and a decrease in fertile land appropriate for cultivation, caused by processes such as desertification. Despite these issues being highlighted, few attempts were made to improve the situation. Those at the meeting could not know that these environmental factors, if left unchecked, would hold great international significance in the future. By neglecting efforts to tackle the issue of climate change in Somalia, experts unknowingly aided the rise of violent extremist group al-Shabaab, which would come to present new and dangerous problems of its own.

Today, the severity of climate change as a key transnational issue is increasingly recognised by countries around the world. The international effort to combat Australian bushfires, Greta Thunburg’s global school strikes campaign, and emerging climate-centric summits, demonstrate the ever-growing awareness of climate change as a pressing issue. Yet, the negative effects of climate change, such as those in Somalia, are by no means a novel development. According to research conducted by the Federal Republic of Somalia published in 2013, Somalia has experienced one or more extreme climate events per decade since 1960. Along with excessive heat and subsequent famines, such as those of 1991 and 2011, Somalia has yoyo-ed between nationwide floods and droughts. These erratic patterns of rainfall are a strong indicator of climate change.

A startling lack of consensus surrounding the method to tackle climate change in Somalia can be largely attributed to the limited data collected on the country’s climate. This lack has been inhibited primarily by domestic political tensions which resulted in the ongoing civil war. Subsequently, the country’s climate monitoring network collapsed, resulting in little data availability from 1990 onwards. Such a situation has made it difficult for accurate scientific analysis of weather patterns to be conducted. As a result, extreme weather and potential natural disasters are difficult to predict, based on the lack of records from previous years. This uncertainty adds to the lack of security in Somalia, as leaders do not have sufficient resources to deal with the aftermath of environmental crises, let alone prepare for them.

The impacts of climate change discussed so far, combined with other factors including desertification and above-average birth rates (compared to the Sub-Saharan average), exacerbate an already weak economy. The climate and economy are intrinsically linked. A key example of this is that land scarcity, caused by increased population levels and decreased fertility, is having an adverse effect on employment levels and food shortages. High youth unemployment contributes to further human insecurity; causing a small number, and only those that can afford it, to migrate to Southern African countries. A large number of countries also do not accept Somali identification documents, meaning many cannot legally leave the country. Consequently, this had left the demographic more vulnerable to recruitment campaigns of al-Shabaab.

While the relationship between human insecurity and the likelihood of joining an extremist group is not linear, there is a strong correlation between both. Research suggests that those who face uncertainty are more likely to be attracted to extremist groups because they offer a clear vision for the future. al-Shabaab provides members and their families the security most of the country is lacking. In return, it commands an intense commitment from its followers to comply with its ideology. Moreover, militants have been known to divert river water to commercial farmers who have supported them financially, whilst others experience shortages. The importance of human security to this issue has been acknowledged: before 1994, policies surrounding the improvement of conditions in countries such as Somalia were focused on national security. However, following a UN report produced in 1994, there was a shift to emphasis on human security. While not conclusive, this shift to a human security focus in Somalia demonstrates the impact that poor socio-economic conditions, exacerbated by climate extremities, have on wider political and security issues.

Critically, it seems that al-Shabaab is not only impacted by, but contributing to, the negative effects of climate change. A key example of this is al-Shabaab’s deforestation endeavours, which supported its charcoal trade until late 2019. For this reason, the United Nations Security Council imposed an embargo on Somali charcoal trade in 2012. However, before this legislation was implemented, nearly two-thirds of forests in southern Somalia were destroyed to ship charcoal to the Persian Gulf. These shipments went through the port of Kismayo, which was only recaptured from the militant group in 2012. Revenues from Kismayo and two other ports run by al-Shabaab were estimated to have earned the group between $35-50 million a year, according to a UN report. The removal of these trees from the Somali ecosystem has led to a deficit in nutrients and a subsequent decrease in fertile ground. This has subsequently worsened the impacts of extreme climate change that are ongoing in the East-African country, escalating the scale of floods and famines.

A key concern is that al-Shabaab has recognised that a level of environmental insecurity is in its best interests to strengthen its power. This is supported by evidence suggesting the terrorist organisation exploited the Somali famine of 2011. It forcibly limited movement when residents tried to flee areas of the country most severely impacted by the food shortages. The group consistently blocked support from NGOs, suggesting it would prefer a starving population than a dilution of power. Its own feeble attempts to manage the situation, such as a Drought Committee founded in 2010, have made little progress. The country has continued to experience droughts almost annually in the last five years. Therefore there is a strong argument to suggest that despite some attempts to act as a social regulator, there is little motivation for Al Shabaab to facilitate improvement.

In conclusion, al-Shabaab clearly benefited from the impacts of climate change in Somalia. The loss of fertile land has led to an economically vulnerable population; which the terrorist organisation has fuelled through deforestation efforts and promoting competition for scarce resources (by limiting in-migration). With few opportunities, a consequently disillusioned youth have turned to extremism for some form of security, however tenuous. There is little motivation for al-Shabaab to improve conditions, demonstrated by its refusal to grant access to NGOs and prevention of out-migration in famine stricken areas. The meagre attempts it has made to improve conditions, such as its Drought Committee, appear superficial and have achieved limited results. Through such exploitation of the impacts of climate change, al-Shabaab in Somalia sustains already rife human insecurity, thus strengthening its own power.

Annabelle Green is currently completing an MA in Terrorism, Security and Society at King’s College London. She hopes to pursue a career in policy surrounding extremist offenders and in her spare time volunteers as a researcher for the charity Action on Armed Violence. She can be found on LinkedIn.

The Funding of Terrorism (Part I) - Hookahs and Honey: Funding Terrorism through ‘Benign’ Activities

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by Ian Ralby

4 August 2019

Shisha pipes across the Middle East are being filled with charcoal smuggled from Somalia. This seemingly benign but criminal activity nets the terrorist group Al-Shabaab millions, if not tens of millions, of dollars each year. (Image credit: Flickr)

 

Terrorism catches people’s attention, charcoal does not. It is a certitude much like the fact that a bomb blowing up a building will make international news and a fishing boat laden with jerry cans of diesel will not. Over the last decade, terrorist groups have increasingly sought to fund their operations using activities that many consider ‘benign’ and thus undeserving of serious scrutiny. While the trafficking of arms, drugs or humans draws significant law enforcement attention around the world, goods including fuel, charcoal, honey, sugar, fish and antiquities do not occupy prominent positions on most of these agencies’ priority lists – if they feature at all. Noting how high-profile crimes tend to attract the close watch of national and international authorities, terrorist organisations around the world have found relative ease in recent years by funding themselves through profitable ‘benign’ operations. It is imperative for law enforcement agencies and counterterrorism authorities to increase their coordination on these matters and scrutinise such often overlooked activities as critical sources of terrorist financing.

Perhaps the best-known instance, at least in counterterrorism circles, of seemingly benign economic activity that actually finances terrorist organisations is the trading of Somali charcoal to the Middle East. Acacia charcoal, excellent for use in shisha pipes, has been exported from Somalia for decades. As Al-Shabaab, a terrorist group established in 2006, took over parts of Somalia, it sought to benefit from the lucrative trade in various ways, including through informal taxes and port revenues. In response, the Transitional Federal Government banned the export of charcoal from Somalia and later the international community imposed an embargo on it. The result has been an extensive smuggling operation in an effort to maintain the income stream. Publicly disclosed estimates from the British Royal Navy suggest that this operation currently yields $7 million per year for Al-Shabaab. Prior to substantial interdiction efforts, that figure was once estimated to be in the tens, or even hundreds, of millions. Unlike issues like piracy or wildlife trafficking, charcoal has not captured public attention in the same way, and thus has not garnered the same political interest, though recent exposés have sought to change that. While the counterterrorism community is heavily focused on charcoal, many politicians still view it as a low priority, since compared to other goods it still seems relatively benign. And even if charcoal does gain further visibility, the situation with Al-Shabaab is only one example of a larger phenomenon.

The same apathy towards smuggling of a benign commodity has been a major factor in illicit oil and fuel activities becoming a substantial source of terrorist financing. The majority of people around the world rely on fuel in their daily lives. Consequently, it is perhaps the most ubiquitous commodity and one which people are most interested in obtaining at a discount. Too often, widespread and seemingly harmless shopping for discounts equates to a willingness on the part of law enforcement and the political establishment to overlook the sources of cheaper-than-market-price fuel. They disregard what seem to be low-scale illicit operations as not meriting the attention of law enforcement. This salutary neglect of black market fuel trading has become a major point of manipulation for terrorist groups looking for under-the-radar income streams.

Furthermore, the success of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has inspired groups around the world to adopt a Jihadi-Salafist philosophy and seek to ‘restore’ the early Islamic caliphate. ISIS-inspired groups, however, are inspired not only by ISIS ideology but also by ISIS methods and it is well-known that ISIS’ principle source of income has been proceeds from illicit oil and fuel activities. It is therefore not surprising that affiliated groups in other regions of the world have turned to fuel smuggling as their primary source of income. In the Philippines for example, Abu Sayyaf used fuel smuggling both to fund itself and to reinforce smuggling routes that supported its movement of weapons and ammunition in the lead-up to and throughout the year-long siege of Marawi. In Trinidad and Tobago, a similar co-location of ISIS ideology and rampant fuel smuggling has given rise to significant international concern. As with charcoal, a prevalent perception of the commodity itself as being benign has created a blind spot that allows terrorist groups to earn substantial profits with little interference or even interest.

Beyond charcoal and fuel, other goods such as fish, livestock, honey, sugar, minerals and antiquities, depending on their availability, profitability, and relative visibility by law enforcement, have all become sources of income for terrorist groups. Osama Bin Laden used honey trading both to make profits and for money laundering. Few goods could seem less sinister than honey, and that provided the perfect cover and income stream for one of history’s most ominous terrorists. Whether the trade is initially illegal, as with fuel smuggling, or technically legal, as with honey or charcoal trading, the very fact that it is being used to fund terrorist organisations makes it illegal.

The point is that terrorist groups are relying on economic activities perceived as benign in order to make, maintain and move their wealth. And wealth is extremely important for terrorism, as evidenced by the direct correlation between the number of attacks perpetrated by a group and its relative financial stature. In a 2016 interview, Maj. Gen. Amos Gilad, former Director of the Israeli Defense Ministry’s Political-Military Bureau, stated, ‘The financial component of terror organizations is critical, and its indispensability for terror attacks is like fuel for the car’. As true as this statement is, the irony is that the financial component of terror organisations may literally be fuel for the car.

To change this dynamic, law enforcement agencies and counterterrorism units need to become more proactive in identifying their own blind spots and false perceptions. This means consciously reexamining those matters they have overlooked in the past. That, however, is not easy to do. Terrorist groups will continue to seek, find and exploit economic opportunities that occupy lower positions on the priority lists of the authoritaries. Inevitably, as law enforcement approaches change, so, too, will terrorist activities. But, it is imperative that the crimes and trading activities that have been relegated to benign status be reconsidered not just in their own right but for their malignant implications. The profits accruing from such overlooked criminal goods as shisha charcoal, farm diesel or artisanal honey, may actually be funding deadly bombings, hijackings, or militant offensives.

Dr. Ian Ralby is a leading expert in international law, maritime security and countering transnational organized crime. He and his team at I.R. Consilium, LLC have world leading expertise in oil and fuel crimes, and the nexus between maritime crimes and both criminal and terrorist activities. Among other degrees, he holds a J.D. from William & Mary and a Ph.D. from the University of Cambridge where he was a Gates Scholar.

al-Shabaab’s Anatomy: A Study in Context

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by Leonardo Palma

15 May 2019

al-Shabaab militants during a training session near Chisimaio, Somalia (Al Jazeera)

Chronic instability in the Horn of Africa, with clear repercussions for Uganda, Sudan, Kenya, and Mozambique, has reinforced a process of aggregation within Islamists groups that include nationalist fringes, maritime pirates and organised crime groups. While this region is under the influence of al-Qa’ida in Eastern Africa (AQEA), the group that is the strongest cause of concern – both numerically and militarily – is al-Shabaab.

From the Islamic Courts to the Battle of Mogadishu

After the Somali state’s collapse in 1991 and the failure of UN Operation “Restore Hope”, the country fell prey to local warlords spurring overall disintegration. The result was the birth, especially in Mogadishu, of the so-called “Islamic Courts Union (ICU)”, which assumed certain administrative and social duties including the settling of civil lawsuits through a rigid application of Sha’ria. Through their private militias, the Courts were also able to handle public order and counter numerous warlords. In 2006, to make the system more efficient and coordinated, several Courts decided to meet in a Union called Midowga Maxkamadaha Isaamiga (ICU). Thanks to strong popular support, the Union was able to recapture Mogadishu after years of anarchy in an institutional vacuum. The Courts established some order, opened up both the harbour and the airport, enlarged the market of Bakara and extended their influence far beyond the city towards Baidoa. The latter was the seat of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), a body born in 2004 after the dissolution of the National Transitional Government (NTG). At that time, the Union’s project of renewal included the introduction of Sha’ria as source of law, but Somalia’s highly stratified tribal system made that almost impossible. Furthermore, the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IAD), created in 1986 by neighbouring countries, kept supporting the Baidoa transitional government, suggesting that the neighbours were – at least – suspicious if not worried about the birth of an Islamic State in Somalia.

al-Shabaab fighters under the black banner (The Independent)

In December 2006, the TFG, militarily supported by Ethiopia, promoted a campaign against Islamic Courts rule. Within a few weeks, the TFG managed to regain control of the city, marginalising the ICU until its complete and utter defeat. It was during those chaotic days that, inside the crumbling ICU, the al-Shabaab movement was born[1]. Previously a minority Islamist group that involved youth inside the Courts, al-Shabaab emerged as an autonomous organisation with wider aim and appeal. The leaders, most of whom were veterans of the Mogadishu battle against the old warlords, decided to carry on the war against the TFG while promoting a three-phase plan: overthrow the federal government, establish an Islamic State and drive the multinational African force (ANISOM) out of Somalia. The latter has led to a progressive tightening of attacks against Kenya, Ethiopia, and Mozambique, all of them responsible for the supply of military equipment to the TFG and for operations against the al-Shabaab training camps.

Evolution, adaptation and ideological clashes

Al-Shabaab evolved quickly, eventually pledging allegiance to and integrating with al-Qa’ida. On 26 January 2009, al-Shabaab insurgents besieged and conquered Baidoa, to the detriment of the weak, and former allied, President Sharif Ahmed[2]. In the following months, several suicide attacks in the cities of Belet Uen and Mogadishu caused the death of hundreds of students, civilians, officials and TFG cabinet members such as Interior Minister Omar Aden[3]. The group extended its control over the country between 2009 and 2011, including much of southern Somalia. In those areas, al-Shabaab reduced the import of low-price food to increase the local wheat production and shift wealth from urban centres to rural areas, where the application of the Sha’ria was less problematic. Over time, al-Shabaab also changed its mind about maritime piracy in the Gulf of Aden. Indeed, the group realised that tolerating pirate activity would have had a huge impact over public opinion against the weak federal government. Nevertheless, following the loss of the Bakara market, and needing to secure financing, al-Shabaab started to engage in economic activities with the pirates, receiving money in return for the use of its territories as “sanctuary” for logistical needs and as routes for weapons and supplies.

In addition to engaging with pirates, its attempts to expand into Somaliland and Puntland shifted al-Shabaab’s ideology closer to that of AQAP (al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula) in Yemen. These new ties led to a divide within the group, since several local leaders and fighters were more rooted in a nationalistic view rather than in an international jihadist ideology[4]. This strife was worsened by the TFG and Kenya’s harsh repression, which weakened the widespread control that al-Shabaab had enjoyed over the coastal region and in the south.[5] Between 2011 and 2012, TFG forces, supported by Kenya reconquered Afgoi, Laanta Bur, Afmadù (a core asset for road connections) and Chisimaio. Indeed, it is during 2012 that the war between the TFG and al-Shabaab for the control of Somalia advanced: in February, through an online message, the Shabaab leader, Ali Zubeyr “Godane”, swore allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahiri, head of al-Qa’ida, thereby officially rendering al-Shabaab a branch of al-Qa’ida. Shortly thereafter, the TFG was disbanded and the Somali Federal Government (SFG) was sworn in, without settling the division between those who want a federal unitarian nation, and those who prefer a tribal federalism with wide administrative autonomies[6].

The group has been also accused of recruiting primary school pupils (Intelligence Briefs)

With the loss of Chisimao and Jubaland, al-Shabaab started to direct its activities towards the consolidation of its territorial control, widening its influence over Somaliland and Puntland and strengthening its asymmetrical terror strategy against Somalia’s neighbours. The carnage of Westgate Mall in 2013 and Garissa College in 2015 were painful manifestations of that strategy[7]. However, al-Shabaab’s menace has increased not only through its adherence to al-Qa’ida (which led, as a direct consequence, to the birth of an international cell named al-Muhajirun) but also through the worsening divide between the fringe controlled by the late Godame (killed in a US drone airstrike in 2014) and the nationalistic faction, tied to the spiritual guru Hassan Dahir Aweys and led by Mukhtar Robow. [8]Indeed, al-Qa’ida decided to replace Godame with Ibrahim al-Afghani in 2010. The strife led to a harsh confrontation until Aweys accepted to move with a private militia in Adado, under SFG control.

The decentralisation strategy beyond 2014

The death of Godame in 2014 left a dangerous power vacuum which the group tried to fill with a strategy of operational decentralisation, following the path marked by al-Qa’ida[9]. That phase of uncertain transition was overcome by a new wave of terrorist attacks in the region. This, on the one hand, confirms the prediction that when a terrorist group is weakened, it tends to strike back to show its vitality. On the other hand, these attacks forced the US military to intensify its counterterrorism operations with airstrikes and special forces. In June 2016, a drone airstrike killed both Mohamud Dulyadeyn, mastermind of the Garissa attack, and Maalim Daoud, al-Shabaab’s intelligence chief. The organisation retaliated over he Summer with car bombings, armed assault, kidnapping and suicide bombers, causing several deaths and re-seizing territory.[10] After the death of an American soldier in a clandestine operation, the US resumed its bombing campaign and struck, from June to August 2017, in several provinces and regions, killing, among others, the regional commander Ali Jabal. According to US intelligence, he was the man behind the suicide attacks in Mogadishu

From late 2017, al-Shabaab has shown great resilience and capacity to adapt to SFG, US, and AMISOM counterterrorism efforts. Decentralising both its operational branches and leadership, has allowed the group to relieve the military and police pressure they have experienced in the last years. The continuation of terrorist attacks is proof that the movement is trying to show that it is still active although weakened. Furthermore, al-Shabaab is attempting to remain on a relentless offensive, thereby exacerbating regional tensions and stability. Regional cooperation, humanitarian assistance, advanced training for the Somali soldiers, selected counterterrorism operations to cut ties between AQAP, al-Shabaab and its sponsors are the only means to drain the territorial control that the group at present still enjoys.

Leonardo Palma attended the Italian Military Academy of Modena and graduated in Political Science and International Relations at Roma Tre University. He is a postgraduate visiting research student at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London.

[1] For a comprehensive historical account, see: Stig Jarle Hansen, Al-Shabaab in Somalia: The History and Ideology of a Militant Islamist Group, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2013; but also James Fergusson, The World’s most dangerous place: Inside the Outlaw State of Somalia, De Capo Press, 2013.

[2] J. L. Anderson, Letter from Mogadishu, The Most Failed State, The New Yorker, December 14, 2009, p. 64, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/12/14/the-most-failed-state.

[3] Three ministers killed in Somalia attack, Newvision.co.ug, December 3, 2009, http://www.newvision.co.ug/D/8/12/703172

[4] Where in the World is Sheikh Aweys? Somalia Report, February 1, 2012, http://www.somaliareport.com/index.php/post/2675/Where_in_the_World_is_Sheikh_Aweys; and Somali observers: internal divisions widening within al-Shabaab, Sabahionline.com, 4 August 2012, http://sabahionline.com/en_GB/articles/hoa/articles/features/2012/04/05/feature-01; see also: Hansen (2013), Ibidem, p.103.

[5] Joint Communique – Operation Linda Nchi, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kenya, January 14, 2012; and Alex Ndegwa, Al Shabaab’s propaganda war, The Standard, 17 November 2011, https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/category/2000046627/n-a;

[6] Somalia: UN Envoy Says Inauguration of New Parliament in Somalia “Historic Moment”, Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, 21 August 2012, https://allafrica.com/stories/201208220474.html;

[7] Kenya al-Shabab attack: Security questions as Garissa dead mourned, BBC News, 3 April 2015, and Okari, Dennis, Westgate’s unanswered questions, BBC News, 22 September 2014.

[8] Nation’s army in new battles as advance resumes, Allafrica.com. November 17, 2011, https://allafrica.com/stories/201111180120.html; and Al-Shabaab Leader Admits Split, Somalia Report, 7 November 2012;

[9] On Al-Shabaab and Al-Qa’ida: Tricia Bacon, Daisy Muibu, Al-Qaeda and al-Shabaab: A Resilient Alliance, in Michael Keating, Matt Waldman, War and Peace in Somalia: National Grievances, Local Conflict and Al-Shabaab, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2019, p. 391;

[10] Somalie: le retrait des troupes éthiopiennes lié à des «contraintes financières», RFI, 27 October 2016, http://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20161027-somalie-le-retrait-troupes-ethiopiennes-lie-contraintes-financieres .

[11] US confirmed the death of al-Shabaab’s Ali Jabal, Fox News, 4 August 2017, https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-confirms-death-of-al-shabaab-terrorist-ali-jabal; and US troops call in airstrike after they come under fire in Somalia, CNN, 17 August 2017, https://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/17/politics/us-troops-somalia-airstrike/index.html.

Image source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/al-shabaab-somalia-ban-single-use-plastic-bags-terror-environment-livestock-a8428641.html

Learning from the neighbours: How to win Kenya’s war on terror

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By Fredrick Omondi Ochieng’:

Police officers storm the Masjid Musa Mosque and detain alleged jihadist radicals in the Majengo area of Mombasa on 2February 2014. (Getty Images)
Police officers storm the Masjid Musa Mosque and detain alleged jihadist radicals in the Majengo area of Mombasa on 2February 2014.
(Getty Images)

The past few months have seen innocent Kenyans lose lives through increased terrorist activities. The September 2013 attack on Westgate Mall was the grisliest one of all, in which the official government report indicated that four armed terrorists invaded a busy shopping mall, claiming the lives of over sixty people and leaving scores with debilitating injuries. The aftermath of this terror attack and the reaction by the government revealed that terrorists are still very far ahead of security agencies in Kenya. Since then, there have been sporadic attacks in the country targeting innocent citizens in public transport vehicles, hotels, bars and markets, with the latest being the Gikomba market attack on 16th May, 2014.

There are various weaknesses with the government systems that allow such attacks to occur, including within the security apparatus. Inter-ethnic hate and perceptions between Kenyan born Somalis and other Kenyans, as well as the misdirected opinion of the Kenyan president that terrorism is a global phenomenon requiring a global effort rather than Kenya’s sole responsibility, are some of the factors that make the fight against terrorism difficult. By looking at comparative efforts made by Uganda and Ethiopia to scuttle terrorist activities this paper points to the need for the entire overhaul of the Kenyan security system to effectively address the terror problem in Kenya. Kenya can borrow from Uganda and Ethiopia in an effort to reduce the threat of terrorism.

The first question to ask is why Kenya? Why not Ethiopia or Uganda, whose troops are also in Somalia? A definitive answer to that is beyond the scope of this article. However, certain socio-economic and political dynamics could be a contributing factor. Many security sector specialists agree that Kenya’s borders are very porous, owing to crucial Kenyan security organs being mostly concerned with protecting the capital city and not the borderlands. With thousands of kilometers left unprotected due to the army and police prioritizing protection of major security installations and elite residences, the terrorists have been brought closer to the people because those who plan and execute these attacks would simply walk on foot, unchecked, to their destination.

Before terrorism became a major concern for Kenya, the government tended to blame regional insecurity on its neighbours, such as Somalia, Sudan, Uganda and Ethiopia. Refugee flows into the country were claimed to be a major source of insecurity in Kenya. Something that missed security analysis is what roles these refugees could play in agitating the growth of dissidents, unhappy with the way the government has been handling socio-political issues within the country. Right now, those who are being arrested are not from Somalia, but Kenyans who are frustrated by the current deteriorating economic situation.

When the issue of the Mungiki[1] came up a few years ago, the reactionary nature of the government was astonishing. Rather than examine why these groups emerged and try to deal with the root cause, the government chose to ‘cut the tree from the top’, leaving the off-shoots to re-grow into a bigger tree that became very difficult to manage-by executing many Mungiki adherents (action that was criticized by International Human Rights bodies, including Human Rights Watch and the United Nations). This is indicative of what is happening with the current terrorism threats in Kenya.

The government has refused to understand why terrorism is flourishing in Kenya at an alarming rate, and has continued its blame game and actions that only ‘add fertilizer’ to the problem. The first reason why fighting terrorism will be difficult to uproot in Kenya stems from the little support the current government has given to the Inspector General (IG) of Police, David Kimaiyo. In his public mien, Kimaiyo appears a man under siege, a helpless stooge that is destined for failure, who has resorted to giving directives that border on public harassment.[2] The questions are; what have tinted private car windows to do with the security of our borders? I ask that question because, while the president is busy blaming foreign governments for giving travel advice to their citizens visiting Kenya, the IG is busy with triviality like banning tinted windows on private cars; meanwhile, the bomb that was exploded in Gikomba was not even carried in a car. In addition, the public transport vehicles that were hit on Thika road did not have tinted windows. So the problem is not the tinted windows but something else, for example, a lack of preparedness, which the security agents are not focusing on.

The political blame game between the members of ruling Jubilee party and the opposition (CORD party), that ensued after the bombing on Thika road is another factor that provides a reason for the security forces’ lack of focus on how to combat terrorism. The security agents should not be dragged into the political party rivalry between two major political parties in Kenya i.e. Jubilee and Cord Coalitions, as this will only make them lose focus on the fight against terrorism. Because a suspectcalled Onyango or Otieno was arrested with pamphlets indicating that he had planned to carry out an attack on ‘another ethnic community’ is irrelevant. The individuals arrested ought to be treated individually as criminals and not as ‘members of one community planning attacks on another’ as the government is treating those arrested. Nairobi is a cosmopolitan city and no one ethnic group uses one particular vehicle while going back to their places of residence.

The recent arrests made in Eastleigh area of Nairobi, (an estate mostly inhabited by Somalis) which only Somali ethnic persons were targeted with arrests, was one of the worst of the strategies applied by the security agents yet. In an attempt to control the influx of Somali immigrants, the police descended on Eastleigh and arrested every Somali without any identification document (whether Kenyan or refugee, male female or children) caging them in what Human Rights bodies called ‘Concentration Camp’ for immigration verification, meanwhile there are exclusive Somali estates in South B, South C and Hurlingham (estates that were left out during this operation) areas as well. Those who have been radicalized are not only Somalis, but in fact come from across the country. Radicalization is occurring not only among the Somalis, but even Kenyan Youths from non-Somali communities are now being radicalised by al Shabaab. The security agencies have over concentrated their efforts on Eastleigh Estate and neglected other areas of the city, giving a chance for the terrorists to shift to new places like Thika road, Gikomba, Town centre, particularly, on the crowded streets. This action has buttressed the stereotypical belief that terrorists are only Somali people. Kenyans of Somali ethnicity now live in fear as other tribes have become highly suspicious of them. Secondly, the issue of ‘ethnic targeting’ would be misleading as communities live as neighbours. If one community is planning anything against the other, they know their homes and can simply target them there. Disconnect between the police and the citizen is in itself a security threat. In many parts of the world, the positive relationship between the security agents and the citizens works well for the security agents in their attempt to reduce insecurity. The communities are the eyes and the informants of security forces. There are no security cameras installed anywhere, but citizens could report on suspicious people living amongst them, were the relationship between the police and the citizens were not so strained. Even in developed societies, with CCTV everywhere, community liaison is still the primary investigative tool whenever crime occurs. The Kenyan case is different, in that as soon a citizen reports to the police, they themselves become the suspects. Kenyans have learned never to report any crime witnessed or anyone who is about to commit a crime.

How have Uganda and Ethiopia dealt with terrorist acts?

Ethiopia has its soldiers in Somalia and has not been hit with terrorism to a level equal to Kenya. According to reliable government reports, Ethiopia has put in place a tough and reliable security apparatus to deal with both internal and external aggression. Although considered as draconian legislation, the anti-terrorism law in Ethiopia has so far fended off terrorism from external borders and from within. When Ethiopia joined the USA in the fight against terrorism, by aiding the USA to counter the influence of Al-Qaeda fighters in Somalia, internal terrorist groups opposed to this action emerged in Ethiopia, forcing the US and some Western nations to close their embassies in Ethiopia (Shinn, 2003).[3] However, Ethiopia has a counterterrorist plan and actions that seek to integrate all the functions of the federal police (EFP), the courts and the citizens in order to maintain law and order.

In a paper entitled ‘Ethiopia’s Devotion to Peace’ (2014),[4] Tesfye Lemma reiterates the fact that, ‘Ethiopia has endeavored to its efforts towards creating a full understanding among its people through strengthening actions against anti-peace activities not only through military actions but also promoting political inclusion’ (Lemma, 2014, p. 1). Lemma adds that, ‘the police work with citizens to identify existence of groups that may cause havoc in the name of political agitation, while the courts are very strict on those who disobey the rule of law’. (p. 2) He further adds ‘the terrorist groups responsible for attacks were put under control due to collaboration of the entire people of Ethiopia and the security forces’. (p. 3) Although many journalists have been jailed using this law it has arguably made the country much safer from terrorist activities including actions of al-Shabaab and the Oromo Liberation Front that fight the government from the South.

Uganda

Through the anti-terrorism legislation of 2002, Ugandan government efforts against terrorism have been both preventive as well as deliberately disruptive interventions. Ugandan citizens have been given space through which they augment the government’s efforts in its war against terrorism activities. The result has been little or no influence for support by the insurgents over the population and this has helped strengthen the position of the government as far as fighting terrorism is concerned. Even though groups like the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) have tried to use coercion and intimidation to force people to kill, abduct and maim innocent citizens, this has yielded more resentment towards them.

Terrorist acts such as the 10th July 2010 attack carried out by Al-Shabaab sympathizers allegedly from Kenya, in downtown Kampala during the World Cup Final, has also strengthened public views against terrorists. Even though many Ugandans view the Museveni government with contempt, on terrorism they seem to share a common interest and understanding. This has made the work easier for security forces to fight terrorism activities. That is why despite the fact that Ugandan soldiers are on Somali soil, the attempts by al-Shabaab has not succeeded beyond what happened in Kampala in 2010.

The government of Uganda has made a collaborative effort in which all the security agencies, including the police, intelligence service, military and private security firms have been working together, through a Joint anti-terrorism (JAT) taskforce. The significance of this is that the taskforce created a space for the citizen’s participation through community policing. Citizens have thus become their ‘brother’s keeper’ watching out for each other, by identifying and reporting suspicious elements within the country bent on causing chaos.

Uganda’s Anti-terrorism Act stipulates that suspected terrorists will no longer be tried or charged under the penal code, but under a separate criminal law. Urban terrorism was being addressed through this law while the rural terrorism, like that being advanced by LRA, was put under the jurisdiction of the military, who through their intensified actions have been able to disable the actions of LRA within the Northern corridors where the LRA operate. By cooperating with, and leading the East African community inter-forces cooperation and partnerships, tracking of terrorist plans and movements have been made easier for Ugandan intelligence services.

As Kenya relies on foreign intelligence services from the USA and UK to gather and inform her security intelligence of any pending terrorist attacks against Kenya, Uganda has strengthened its own security intelligence services that operate independently and is well equipped to deal with this task. The Kenyan security intelligence services on the other hand look inept and ill-equipped or are more interested in political services other than servicing the citizenry. An overhaul of the entire Kenyan security system is necessary, with space for citizens’ participation in the whole security plan and execution. Without citizen’s inclusion, Kenya will still find it hard to crack the security threats posed by both internal and external terrorist activities.

 

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Fredrick Omondi Ochieng’ is an African Leadership Centre scholar at King’s College London undertaking MSc in Security Leadership and Society. He has worked as a Community development; Monitoring and Evaluation and Gender Mainstreaming Specialist with several United Nations agencies, NGOs and Government of Kenya.

 

NOTES

[1] The Mungiki are a secretive mafia-/cult-like organization of young Kikuyu men who are adherents of a religious sect that was banned by Kenyan government due to terrorist activities in Kenya’s central province.
[2] Kimaiyo makes public pronouncements/directives not provided for in the Laws of Kenya. The Law society of Kenya (LSK) took the IG head-on on those directives and promised to offer free legal aid to anyone arrested by police due to these directives by the IG. (F.O).
[3] D.H. Shinn (2003). ‘Terrorism in East Africa and the Horn: An Overview’, The Journal of Conflict Studies, Vol. 23, No 2 (2003), online at The Gregg Centre for the Study of War and Society, http://journals.hil.unb.ca/index.php/jcs/article/view/218/376 (accessed 7 June 2014).
[4] L. Tesfye (2014). ‘Ethiopia’s Devotion to Peace’, online at www.waltainfo.com/index.php (accessed 6 June 2014).