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You are here: Home / Archives for Elections

Elections

Generation Terrorists: The Politics of Youth and the Gangs of Freetown

March 5, 2018 by Dr. Kieran Mitton

By Dr Kieran Mitton

A poster in Susan’s Bay calls on Sierra Leone’s youth to be peaceful during elections (Credit Image: Kieran Mitton)

Youth at Risk – Youth as Risk

On the evening of the 15th February, six leading presidential candidates for the Sierra Leone presidential elections took to the stage. Over three hours of a live broadcasted debate, each answered questions about their plans for the country. Seen by some as a milestone in Sierra Leone’s post-war political development, the following morning the capital Freetown was abuzz with talk about who had acquitted themselves, who had failed to impress, and what – if anything – this might mean for the election result on the 7thMarch. In the offices of a youth development organisation, staff enthusiastically discussed the event.

In an adjoining room, I met with their colleague Mohamed*, a man with decades of experience working in the city’s poorest informal communities. What did you think of the debate? I asked. Was it a sign that Sierra Leone’s political scene is moving towards serious discussion of policies, or as one report put it, ‘growing up’?

Mohamed smiled. Pointing to his colleagues next door, he replied: ‘Each person there is arguing about why their preferred candidate won the debate. What the candidate actually said, how they performed – it doesn’t matter.’ He went on to make a familiar point; voters put party, tribe and personal loyalties ahead of policies. Whilst certainly not new or unique to Sierra Leone, this he contended, meant such debates had little bearing on the electoral outcome. The promise of some candidates to provide free education, surely a positive development for the country’s youth, was just rhetoric, he concluded. In fact, ‘politicians keep the youth uninformed and uneducated so they can use them to their own advantage.’

In Sierra Leone’s post-conflict era, great stress has been placed on engaging young people, providing solutions to severe unemployment and lack of educational opportunities to ensure the country never again experiences civil war. The idea that it was a ‘youth crisis’ that precipitated conflict dominates academic analysis and was a key conclusion of the country’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission. This emphasis has entrenched a peacebuilding discourse that presents youth as both an at risk population – vulnerable to chronic poverty and exploitation of their grievances – as well as a risk – a potential source of violence, instability, or even renewed conflict. In its crudest form, this latter discourse is found in frequent characterisations of ‘idle’ and criminal youth in local media, where their economic hardship and violence is explained not so much by their circumstances as by their ‘bad’ character. Election campaigns, through rhetoric aimed at youth and through violence involving youth, have reinforced both. Mohamed’s scepticism towards political promises, and belief that politicians seek to exploit young people, is born of experience.

Recycled Rhetoric and Remobilisation

Successive elections since 2002 have promised much but delivered little tangible change for many young people. Initial optimism that a new administration might bring transformation, or that political patrons’ offers of jobs in exchange for support would be honoured, has invariably given way to disillusionment and deepened cynicism. A bitter sense of betrayal pervades the stories of those who describe their past enlistment by ‘big men’. The ability to register this frustration at the ballot box is certainly valued – an important and too often overlooked contrast to pre-war Sierra Leone – but it underlines a fundamental problem of the country’s political landscape. Both major parties – the ruling All People’s Congress (APC) and the opposition Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) – are seen as offering little deviation from politics as usual. The same old familiar faces of the establishment continue to dominate political life. And so, many of Sierra Leone’s youth believe they can change governments, but they cannot make governments change.

Violent clashes of past elections have done much to reinforce the ‘youth as risk’ discourse, reinvigorating tired tropes of idle youth and dangerous ex-combatants. During 2007 elections, fighting between supporters of rival parties took place across the country, leading then SLPP President Tejan Kabbah to declare a state of emergency. Yet these incidents were not simply the boiling-over of pent-up frustration nor the wanton criminality of unemployed youth. In another sign of negative political continuity, parties and political patrons had actively courted – and importantly, been courted by – groups of youth and ex-combatants to act as security ‘taskforces.’ Incentives ranged from gifts of drink and cash to promises of jobs and education. Providing ‘security’ often equated to intimidating political opponents and interrupting rival rallies. In the years following, a small number of senior ex-combatants on the winning APC side had reaped the rewards of this bargain, but most others missed out.

In 2012, the situation was markedly different. In the run up, grave concerns were expressed as incidents of violence between rival party taskforces and youth groups continued to occur across the country. Much analysis warned of turmoil on a par with 2007, if not worse. Yet in the end the re-election of the APC’s President Ernest Bai Koroma was largely peaceful. Of encouragement was the role of civil society, including youth organisations, in actively campaigning against electoral violence. My interviews with ex-combatants also found a pronounced determination among some not to be ‘fooled’ again and drawn to violence on the back of false promises. That said, opportunities for their recruitment were comparatively scarce. The SLPP was wracked by splits and Koroma enjoyed strong support, winning over the 55 percent mark required to avoid a run-off vote. It is that second round that is associated with heightened violence, with the contest close and votes of minor parties up-for-grabs.

An APC poster in central Freetown thanks departing President Koroma on behalf of the young (Credit Image: Kieran Mitton)

2018 Elections and the Gangs of Freetown

In the years since 2012, the same challenges blighting youth mobility in Sierra Leone have not diminished. Official UN figures put youth unemployment and underemployment at 70%. A sense of weariness is detectable among many who held great optimism during Koroma’s first term. Whilst there has been visible infrastructural development, the poorest have felt little benefit. Hopes that mining profits might lead to economic transformation for the benefit of all have dissipated, and the response to the Ebola outbreak of 2014, no small challenge for any government, highlighted endemic problems of corruption and fraud against which Koroma had vowed to fight in 2007.

The vote on March 7th will see Koroma stand-down after serving the maximum two terms. For this reason alone, it will be significantly different to the 2012 ballot. But in a welcome shake-up, two new political parties have entered the fray. Former Vice-President Samuel Sam-Sumana leads the Coalition for Change (C4C). Sumana made international headlinesin March 2015 after seeking asylum in the US embassy following a fall-out with Koroma and the APC. He was subsequently sacked, a move which in November 2017 was ruled illegal by the ECOWAS Court of Justice. Sumana’s support-base is in Kono, a key swing district that could prove decisive.

Another new player is the National Grand Coalition (NDC) led by Kandeh Yumkella, a former UN Under-Secretary General. Having split from the SLPP, he remains firmly opposed to the APC and could also take votes from both major parties. The entry of these parties raises the prospect of a much closer contest than the last, and the common view among Sierra Leonean and international observers is that the election will go to a second round.

With the expectation of a run-off vote, fears arise of a repeat of past election violence. But here there is also an important change from previous campaigns. In the immediate post-war years, attention was firmly fixed on ex-combatants and the potentially devastating consequences of their mobilisation. As that generation has grown older, and judging from the last election, moved away from direct engagement in violence, a new generation of young marginal Sierra Leoneans has taken their place in the discourse of dangerous youth: gangs.

Referred to as cliques, gangs and youth street associations have a long history in Sierra Leone. However, police, youth activists, researchers, local communities and gangs themselves agree that they have grown in size and significance in recent years, and are becoming institutionalised.** As mention of ex-combatants and party taskforces wanes in media reporting, discussion of the ‘clique problem’ has increased. In 2015, news of fatal gang-related stabbings and public discussion of crime and violence led the Attorney General and Minister of Justice to describe gang activity in Freetown as ‘domestic terrorism’ , demanding immediate attention by the security sector. That attention saw police offer rewards for information on gang leaders, and in 2017, the Minister of Defence took to the airwaves to advocate his personal view that the solution to rising gang violence was to implement the death penalty. As the elections have drawn closer, general fears over gangs have narrowed to one specific concern: that they may be used by politicians to attack opponents and intimidate voters.

A ‘Member of Blood’ gangster proudly displays his tattoo (Credit Image: Kieran Mitton)

To what extent are the gangs truly a threat in upcoming elections? My research has sought to better understand Sierra Leone’s cliques and their violence, focussing on Freetown though gangs are to be found across much of country. There is not space here for in-depth detail of gang organisation and activity, or the responses to it. Here I wish to briefly explore the specific issue of election violence drawing on recent interviews and time spent with three factions: the red-wearing Bloods or M.O.B. (Members of Blood); the blue-wearing Cent Coast Crips (CCC); and the black-wearing So-So Black. In Freetown, Bloods dominate the west, Crips the centre, and Black the east, though boundaries are fluid and sub-cliques diffuse. Based primarily (but not exclusively) in informal settlements or slums, members are identified by bandanas – locally ‘mufflers’ – in their respective colours. They hang-out in ghettos and street-corners, listening to music, drinking, smoking and dealing marijuana. They range from young teens to those in their mid-thirties. Contrary to some portrayals, they are not significantly connected to ex-combatant networks, and in many neighbourhoods there are no ex-combatants among them. This is unsurprising considering some were born after the war.

When it comes to violence, a main driver is inter-gang disputes – ‘beefs’ over colour. One gang-member I interviewed had recently been released from a year-long prison sentence for stabbing a rival who had ‘provoked’ him by walking into his territory wearing a red muffler. Other larger-scale incidents have taken place during music concerts and football matches where rival groups come face-to-face. Running ‘rampages’ of vandalism and scuffles have accompanied the movement of east side gangs through enemy territory in the west and centre.

A sign outside a popular gang hangout in Susan’s Bay prohibits wearing gang colours (Credit Image: Kieran Mitton)

Personal disputes, often over women, also lead to vendettas and cycles of revenge. Opportunistic robbery, particularly at night, is a source of income alongside dealing marijuana. The latter is a subsistence game and there does not appear to be substantial conflict over the trade or dealing spots. But the elections, perhaps, offer new opportunities.

In the last couple of years, gang members have described one faction or another as siding with a political party. They recount stories of large payments being paid to gangs by intermediaries of parties, with the implicit (and sometimes explicit) expectation they would in turn give their support and cause ‘trouble’ for their opponents. Individual political patrons are alleged to have used gifts of alcohol, cash and job opportunities – the old familiar promises offered to ex-combatants in the past – to bring them to their side. Substantiating these claims remains difficult, but they are stories repeated across Freetown and regularly hinted at in news articles. They came to the fore on 26th January in the middle of the city, during a rally linked to the nomination ceremony of the ruling APC party. Fights broke out between youth wielding machetes and knives, and at least one individual was fatally stabbed. Pro-SLPP and APC outlets accused each other of being behind the violence, before police announced that the perpetrators were in fact gang members.

Fifty-five gangsters were subsequently arrested, including an individual who had previously been described in interviews as an intermediary between the government and cliques. In discussing the incident, members of various factions told a similar story, though again it could not be substantiated. The intermediary, they claimed, acted as a go-between with the government to tackle gang violence, often dispersing large amounts of money to gang leaders from the safety of a central police station. Several gangsters expressed the view that in reality, these were political payments to secure support, rather than investments in peace. On the specific occasion of the rally, they claimed, one clique suspected this individual of withholding funds for himself and began remonstrating. The dispute escalated to violence when another gang came to his defence, leading to the killing. Following the arrests, a Freetown judge sentenced the fifty-five to either three months imprisonment or payment of a Le1000,000 fine (roughly $130USD). Rumours quickly circulated that the fine was paid, and according to one confidential informant, that the money came from the ruling party.

The details of the above incident remain disputed and unverified. Beyond the usual challenge of rumour substantiating for fact, in the charged political environment of the election campaign there are clear reasons for parties to implicate each other in abuses. Nevertheless, there is little doubt that some gang members are seeking to profit as hired muscle, and political patrons have likewise courted them to this end. These stories mirror the mobilisation of ex-combatants and youth in past elections. Now, it seems, a new generation is becoming part of this old problem. Solo, a gang captain in his early twenties, commented:

‘At this election time we see them [the politicians]. After this time, we won’t see them. When they need us, they are our friends. They come with rum, cider, they offer small money. They want us to vote for them, go to the rally, to fight their rivals. All the parties come to us.’

This returns us to the opening concern. Has Sierra Leone’s political system, and specifically its relationship with marginalised youth, changed significantly? From the perspective of gang members, it has not. Elections still represent to some a brief window of opportunity for personal advancement, but at the risk of committing violence that only deepens fears of dangerous youth and perpetuates a political relationship built on mutual exploitation and distrust. Sierra Leone’s past shows that violence in such a context may become not simply a mercenary act, but expressive rebellion and defiance against those who seek to prosper from it. Whilst so much focus has been given by peacebuilders to the DDR generation and the supposed dangers of unemployed ex-combatants, a younger generation born after the war faces the same hardships of chronic poverty, limited educational opportunities, and a destructive relationship with political leaders. The feared growing ‘gang problem’ in Freetown and across Sierra Leone cannot be understood or addressed in isolation from these hardships.

To end on a positive note, anti-violence campaigning from civil society groups and the determination of Sierra Leoneans to maintain peace remains unwavering. Despite popular concerns, to date gangs do not appear to have been mobilised to the same extent as taskforces and youth groups in the past. This offers hope that elections will pass peacefully, though few will be surprised if they do not. Whoever emerges victorious, they will have an opportunity to inject renewed energy into tackling the root causes of youth marginalisation. This is an endeavour that by definition must be sustained long after the campaign posters have been taken down. It is a matter first and foremost not of a youth crisis, nor even a gang problem. It is about changing the very practice of politics and governing itself. A major but critical challenge that begins at the very top.

*Some names have been changed to preserve anonymity.

** For this observation and insights into the nationwide activity of gangs I am grateful to Professor Ibrahim Abdullah.

 

This article has been republished on Strife Blog with the author’s permission. It was originally published on Mats Utas Blog http://bit.ly/2FfefyA

 


Dr. Kieran Mitton is a Senior Lecturer in International Relations, Research Director of the Conflict, Security & Development Research Group, and co-Chair of the Africa Research Group, at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London. He is developing a comparative research project – Youth at Risk/Youth as Risk: Global Responses to Urban Violence – that examines gang dynamics and interventions in Cape Town, Freetown, London, and Rio de Janeiro. He is the author of Rebels in a Rotten State: Understanding Atrocity in the Sierra Leonean Civil War . You can follow him on Twitter @kieranmitton


Images Source: all photos were taken by the author

Filed Under: Blog Article Tagged With: Africa, Elections, feature, Sierra Leone, Violence, youth

Italian general elections: a concern for the EU ?

March 2, 2018 by Giammarco Petrone

By Giammarco Petrone

The 2018 Italian general election will take place on 4th of March 2018 (Credit Image: IEG Policy)

International commentators have presented the Italian general election – which will be held on the 4th of March 2018 – as a big test not only for Italy but also for the European Union (EU). Over the course of the current legislative period (2013-18), Italians have witnessed several major events. First, the Parliament had no outright majority. Then, no less than three grand coalition governments held power, in which parties of completely different political ideologies united. Also, Giorgio Napolitano was re-elected President, which marked an historic moment for Italy as no President had never been re-elected before. The fourth occurrence was the election of the new President, Sergio Mattarella. Finally, a radical revision of the constitution was implemented, which the electorate then rejected in a referendum in December 2016. Even after all these events, the country is still grappling with the same thorny issues, such as low GDP growth, high youth unemployment and the second highest debt in the EU. This article will address the different views the Italian parties have about the relationship with the European Union, which will be followed by the examination of the relation between Italy and the EU. This article’s overall argument will hold that Italian general elections do not represent a threat for the stability of the EU.

Italian political parties have somewhat different approaches towards Brussels, which are reflected by in their different electoral manifestos. However, there is a fil rouge that connects all of them: the call for change, either towards more or less integration, depending on the political ideology. Besides this, the relationship with the EU has arguably become an established matter of the political campaign. This is not specific to Italy, it occurred in other European states. For instance, the EU is a fundamental topic in French domestic politics, as illustrated during last year’s Presidential election.

The Democratic Party, which has been in power since 2013, is led by the former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. It is a pro-European party that supports the creation of a United States of Europe, as recently proposed by Martin Schulz, former President of the European Parliament. Furthermore, it campaigns for the direct election of the European Commission’s President, the unification of the European Commission’s and the European Council’s presidencies, and the creation of a European Ministry of Finance. However, the Democratic Party criticizes the Dublin Regulation, which considers the state through which asylum seekers first enter the EU as responsible to examine their applications for international protection (in 2017 Italy received almost 120,000 migrants), as well as the EU’s austerity policies, since they are seen as negatively impacting on investments.

The Five Star Movement, often referred to as Italy’s anti-establishment party, has a bold program and its leader is Luigi Di Maio, current Vice President of the Chamber of Deputies. It campaigns to increase the powers of the European Parliament, as it is the only institution elected by citizens, to introduce an opt-out clause from the monetary union, and to modify the aforementioned Dublin Regulation. The Five Star Movement also supports the empowerment of national parliaments to set the agenda of European priorities, in line with its membership of the Eurosceptic group ‘Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy’ in the European Parliament. Yet, further proposals such as the abolition of any ‘unproductive’ (or deemed so) European agency, or that of the triple institutional seats (Brussels-Strasburg-Luxemburg) seem hardly feasible, as they are outlined in the treaties of the European Union.

The centre-right coalition, which is composed of Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, The League, and Brothers of Italy, is likely to pursue a tough line on the EU’s austerity policies. According to their unified manifesto, the centre-right parties campaign to revise the EU treaties in order to strengthen national sovereignty, so that the Italian constitution can prevail over European laws and regulations. Even if the coalition comprises Forza Italia, a party which has recently taken a pro-Europe stance, laying emphasis on the Italian interests in Brussels is considered as a top priority on its agenda. Despite this, it is highly unlikely that cornerstones of the EU legal and institutional framework, such as both the primacy of the European law as well as the common interests of its member countries, will be unilaterally questioned.

The Italian electors, who can hardly identify themselves with any political party able to answer their problems, have two main concerns, the economy and immigration that do influence their opinions on the European Union. Firstly, Italy has not completely recovered from the economic crisis and such stagnation inevitably impacts on the unemployment rate, that is even more severe among young people, especially in the south. Secondly, immigration is thought to be mishandled, which is the reason why the presence of illegal immigrants, refugees, and asylum seekers is perceived as higher than it really is. Although Italy sets an example for its ‘compassionate and courageous response to the biggest refugee and migration crisis since the end of the Second World War’, the population feels that other countries should bear more responsibility. In this regard, according to Eurobarometer, which is a series of opinion surveys conducted regularly on behalf of the EU, only 39 percent of the population considers being part of the EU as beneficial, whereas the percentage is around 64 percent in the other EU countries.

European leaders have hardly expressed any comments about the potential outcome of the Italian elections, probably due to the fact that at present any kind of comment during a political campaign in a different country might be seen as interference. However, last January French President Emmanuel Macron, widely regarded as the main proponent of political integration in the EU, did not hesitate to praise Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni, and also to express his view by stating ‘Can I say that the European Union is positive for Italy, and can I also say that an Italy which believes in Europe is positive for Europe’. This should come as no surprise, since the Democratic Party is currently the less hostile party towards the EU and Macron’s and Renzi’s political views are quite similar. More recently, Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of the European Commission, warned that the EU should prepare for the worst-case scenario after the Italian elections, as no operational government will be formed.

However, he retracted only a few hours later, making clear that he was misunderstood and that Italy will continue to play a pivotal role in the EU. In this regard, at present the most likely scenario is either a fragmented Parliament with no uniform majority, which would lead to new elections, or a minority government, where the support to the bipartisan government is given to guarantee stability to the country. Nevertheless, both options do not necessarily mean prolonged political paralysis, which is what seems to worry the EU.

Given that Italy is the third largest economy in the Eurozone as well as the third most populated country in the EU, what implications the Italian elections might have? If either the Democratic Party or a Forza Italia led coalition takes power, sweeping changes are unlikely to be brought about to the current approach. However, a push for more flexibility concerning the fiscal policies as well as more pressure on immigration policies cannot be excluded. Conversely, it is even possible (but highly unlikely) that, if the Five Star Movement performed well in the elections, it might consider forming a government with The League, and this would be the worst scenario for the EU since both parties have criticised its handling of mass migration as well as the common currency.

In conclusion, as instability will probably be the winner of the Italian elections, it is unlikely that the results will significantly affect the EU. Although Italy was among the founding members of the European Economic Community in 1957, and it has always been at the forefront of the European integration process, which has been a pillar of its foreign policy, at present it has little regional influence and even less authority in negotiations. In all likelihood, Brussels will land on its feet.

 


Giammarco has been working in the security field for almost ten years, with experiences in Asia and Latin America. He holds an MA in International Relations from Italy, and is currently an MA candidate in Intelligence & Intelligence Security at King’s College London. His main interests include corporate espionage, cybercrime, and OSINT.


Image Source: https://iegpolicy.agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL019152/Italy-takes-over-EU-Presidency-from-Greece

Filed Under: Blog Article Tagged With: Elections, EU, feature, Italy

Strife Interview - Defence Journalist Jean-Dominique Merchet on the French intelligence reforms

March 10, 2017 by Strife Staff

Palais de l’Elysée, home of the President of the Republic (Credit: Wikimedia Commons)

The French presidential elections are due to take place in a few weeks. They will have a significant impact on the short-term future of this country. The first round will be held on 23 April 2017 and the second round on 7 May 2017. The future Head of State will have to deal with several topics, including the terrorist threats, a hypothetical reform of the intelligence machinery, as well as the future of the European Union (EU).

Strife’s William Moray discusses these issues with defence journalist Jean-Dominique Merchet [@jdomerchet]. Mr Merchet is a journalist for the daily newspaper L’Opinion and he publishes Secret Defense – a professional blog. An expert in defence, strategy, and security issues, he is an alumni of the Institut des hautes études de défense nationale (Institute of Advanced Studies in National Defence), a public Academic institution dedicated to research and education in defence-related matters. All enquiries as to this article’s content should be sent to the Strife Blog.

WM – You recently wrote an article about some potential French intelligence reforms the future President of the Republic may have to decide upon. Which of these reforms – if any – do you think should constitute a priority?

JDM – The subject of the utmost importance is the nomination of a new ‘DGSE’ (Director-General of the Foreign Security). The need is strong, as Bernard Bajolet will be tending his resignation a fortnight after the presidential election.

In general, I would personally argue on the one hand in favour of maintaining the Direction Générale de la Sécurité Extérieure (DGSE, ‘Directorate-General for Foreign Security’, the foreign intelligence agency) as it is. This organisation is a French particularity, known as an ‘integrated service’ in the sense that it combines different activities. Hence, in equivalent UK terms, with regards to covert operations, the DGSE combines the activities of MI6, the GCHQ and some activities of the SAS. I believe this system is not a bad one, it is efficient. Conversely, some people would like to dismantle the agency. For instance, the military part – i.e. the Service Action, Action Service, the division in charge of covert action – would be reassigned to the Commandement des Opérations Spéciales (COS, ‘Special Operations Command’, similar to USSOCOM). Another possibility would be to establish an equivalent of the NSA which would oversee SIGINT. However, a public servant well aware of this topic has recently suggested that ‘we must make improvements, but this is as simple as changing the parts in a moving car’. I think this sums it up accurately; thus, there is no need to change anything in the DGSE.

What does not work well on the other hand is the Ministry of the Interior (i.e. the Home Office), which in France controls the Direction Générale de la Sécurité Intérieure (DGSI, ‘General-Directorate for Domestic Security’, the domestic intelligence agency, which in France is under the Ministry of the Interior’s supervision). Again, this is strictly my own view, as a long-standing observer of such matters. The Ministry still functions more or less as it did in the early 20th Century, with regards to both law enforcement and domestic intelligence. To this extent, inter-service competition between police and prefets (representative of the state in local governments) remains a major characteristic. Also, the distinction between the National Police and the Paris Police Prefecture is another example of poor management, as this distinction does not make much sense. All things considered, the DGSI is a law-enforcement agency, not a domestic intelligence agency, unlike what the politicians claimed when it was established. Therefore, if there is truly a need for modernisation, it should be directed at the Ministry of Interior. In comparison, the Ministry of Defence – which supervises the DGSE – has considerably modernised in recent years.

WM – In regards to the recent controversy following the publication of the book “Un President ne devrait pas dire cela” was President Francois Hollande right to publish classified information regarding clandestine operations, more particularly ‘opérations homo’?

JDM – He was very wrong to do so. The book’s title speaks for itself, there are certain things the President should not talk about. In fact, I would argue this book finished Hollande of, as he renounced standing for re-election. In other words, this event was the final step of a long and tortuous road. However, the real problem is rather that Hollande and other decision-makers have, and continue to, abuse this military-like attitude, an attitude which I find very disagreeable. I am thinking of the vocabulary which is being used, such as ‘we are at war’. Ideally, one should continue as before whilst talking about it less. In the end, it is not up to politicians to feed the fantasy.

WM – How come the only response the French government has come up with towards the terrorist threats merely consists in the state of emergency, and not a proper strategy? This measure, similar to martial law and therefore intended to be temporary, has been ongoing for over a year (since the Paris attacks in November 2015) and has been extended on five occasions.

JDM – I would not be so categorical as to the absence of a strategy. To declare the state of emergency means to raise the level of alert up to a maximum. From there onwards, diminishing the level of alert becomes extremely hazardous, because it would be political suicide. The point is that the state of emergency is a PR operation; as with any PR operation, it is difficult to go back. For instance, I myself believe that the deployment of military personnel in the streets is of limited use. However, once a decision has been made, it is very difficult to reverse that decision. Nonetheless, the intelligence services, the anti-terrorist units and the police do their job: they prevent terrorist attacks from happening and dismantle terror networks. Nevertheless, it is important to find rules that dovetail well with the daily lives of the citizens.

WM – Yet, France’s response fails to include long-term measures (such as the Counter-Terrorism Strategy (CONTEST) in the UK). Why is that?

JDM – There is no perfect solution to the terrorist threat. Once a cycle of terrorist violence has been initiated, it is difficult to find a way out of it. Long-term solutions must indeed be found such as a means to tackle radicalisation, as well as considering the effects of foreign policy. A brainstorming process is required and improvements can always be found. However, an efficient antiterrorism policy also requires protective – and thus short-term oriented – measures. Short term and long term are not mutually exclusive. Coming up with criticism is one thing, such criticism is a necessity in a democratic system, however, snap judgments are another. You mentioned the United Kingdom. The British were lucky enough not to have suffered any terrorist attack lately, unlike France or Germany. I am not suggesting that the French approach is perfect, but who can claim to have the perfect strategy? The struggle against terrorism is an imprecise science.

French Soldiers patrolling near the Eiffel Tower (Credit: AFP - Gonzalo Fuentes)

WM – France will remain the only nuclear power and a UNSC permanent member of the EU in the aftermath of Brexit. Will Paris thus have increased responsibilities in terms of EU defence as well as diplomacy?

JDM – Not really, in the sense that the issue at stake is power. In that sense, the UK will always have an important role to play in the continent. After all, Great-Britain is a fundamental pillar of NATO. As Theresa May rightly pointed out, ‘the British people have voted to leave the EU, but they did not vote to leave Europe’. I do believe moreover that Brexit needs to be put in perspective, as the UK did not play a great role in either EU integrated defence or external security. Similarly, Brexit will not damage cooperation in regard to anti-terrorism, as intelligence sharing with France is the product of bilateral agreements. Conversely, I am quite sceptical about whether the departure of the UK from the EU will result in an acceleration of the work on the subjects of diplomacy and common defence.

In short, I really doubt that Brexit will cause much of an impact one way or another and thus, the effects this will have on France should be minimal. Brexit is not good for the international order, neither symbolically nor for the image it creates; the practical effects, however, will be limited.

WM – In the wake of the US national election hacks and information leaks during the campaign by several state and non-state actors, how well-equipped is French intelligence to respond to such similar threats - considering that the French presidential and legislative elections are a few months away?

JDM – Who is capable of successfully dealing with a massive cyberattack? Currently, in my view, nobody has this capacity on a large scale.

France is fully aware of the problem and has means of defending itself. The Conseil de défense et de sécurité nationale (Defence and national security council) met on Wednesday 1st of March, and this topic was discussed on that occasion. The media regularly mentions this topic, if only to educate the public and raise awareness. For instance, the expression ‘cyberattack’ has different layers. First, it can mean the propaganda being spread by social media. This is also a matter of freedom of speech. The fact that these rumours originate from sources close to the Kremlin (e.g. RT, Sputnik) is not the problem; this is ‘soft power’, and many Western powers similarly make use of it. The West no longer has the monopoly of either power or legitimacy, both are heavily contested. No, the real issue at stake here is that a fraction of the public opinion here in France, believe these ‘trolls’ spread by pro-governmental Russian media. The second layer is the attack which targets and takes down a website. Here again, some defensive measures do exist. Finally, the third layer, i.e.the actual hacking is the theft of confidential data for a specific purpose. There has not – yet – been such a case in France, similar to Wikileaks; however, it might very well happen.

The important thing when it comes to cyberattack and hacking is to stick with facts instead of adopting a fantasy-like approach. For instance, the public has never complained about Wikileaks. A final point, the French electoral system has a very limited use of electronic votes; the French living abroad are the only small portion of the electorate which can vote electronically and only for the parliamentary elections. Therefore, there cannot be any hacking, the ultimate choice is that of the French people. Which brings us back to the real problem at stake, the fact that a segment of the public believes the trolls of the Russian media.

(Following publication of this interview, the French government has suspended this electronic vote on Friday 3rd March, in order to prevent hacking).


This article was translated from French by Strife’s BA Representative William Moray. You can find the French version here.


Image 1 Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Paris_-_palais_de_l’%C3%89lys%C3%A9e_-_cour_05.JPG

Image 2 Source: http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/6009862-3×2-940×627.jpg

Feature image source: http://www.lopinion.fr/blog/secret-defense

Filed Under: Interview Tagged With: Elections, feature, France, Hollande, Security Sector Reform

Forget Trump 2016, Prepare for Trumpism 2020

November 7, 2016 by Timothy Potenz

By: Timothy Potenz

Donald Trump greets the crowd before speaking at a rally in Dallas, TX.
Donald Trump greets the crowd before speaking at a rally in Dallas, TX.

When Trump’s defeat seemed increasingly likely, Trump and his team pre-emptively ratcheted up the excuses for a loss on November 8th 2016 - media bias, inaccurate polling, rigged voting booths. Many commenters who accused Trump of whining about the result even before the elections took place or by painting him as a petulant child unable to handle defeat, may well have missed something. Yes, if Trump’s only goal were to win this election, it is arguable that whining would never secure him enough new voters. However, this is arguably not Trump’s only goal. Trump 2016 could have an institutional consequence for four years. Trumpism 2020s will affect far, far more.

We need to stop viewing Trump within the prism of this election. Should we continue to do so, he will look nonsensical. However, if one were to see this through the prism of the next decade or even longer, his actions may well bear him some dark fruit. For Trump himself, November 8th 2016 is unlikely to be a decisive moment.

Trump can pivot from Trump 2016 to Trumpism 2020 because he is not simply a political figure. He is a movement, an idea, and expression of something much larger. Like the Leviathan adorning Hobbes’ 17th-century text, he consists of a great many people who have invested in him the power to voice their collective rage. Trump is the embodiment of a group that he has isolated and united. He has made this group, whose numbers were previously underestimated, into something cohesive. They are now a constituency. They are not going anywhere on November 9th.

This can afford Trump and his imminent ideological successors with far more tremendous power that can shake the nature of the establishment in USA.

The rise of the cult

Donald Trump has often been chided for using divisive tactics over the course of this election. This is unlikely to be a miscalculation on his part. Keeping his group together in the long term is far more important to him than bringing in outsiders. For instance, you are not welcome in Trumpland if you do not share the fundamental belief that the establishment and its internationalist, diversity-driven, elite-run agenda is the devil, and that Trump is going to break this evil.

Anything that shows that this view is wrong is a lie, anyone who disagrees with them is a liar, any statistic that disproves them is fabricated, any system that denies them must be skewed, broken or rigged. The thought process is classic cult thinking: ‘Don’t believe anyone else, we have the truth, and anyone who says otherwise is working against you and your family.’ Cults and cult leaders are considerably more interested in isolating themselves and establishing a siege mentality by demonizing the outside world than they are in bringing outsiders into their world.

By building a wall around his support base, which costs nothing and deters not just immigrants but dissenting views, Trump has been steadfast in ensuring that his agenda remains relevant beyond Election 2016. He has constructed a perfect echo chamber with the booming voices of him and his constituents, strengthening their solidarity with each other and imperviousness to outside influences.

Increasingly, fueled by a fragmented media, this echo chamber is mirrored in many countries in the Western world. The rise of populist and nationalist movements across Europe - such as Britain and France - reveal a phenomenon that is propped up by transnational networks and newer means of political communication. Trump is one who has expertly manipulated this and is arguably taking it to another level. He has molded his followers to refuse to concede defeat.

This affords Trump with a position of great strength in Trumpland. By appealing to his base rather than widening his appeal, he is securing his status as a cult leader rather than watering down his image with an appeal to the mainstream. As a result, he commands incredible loyalty from his followers. He may lock it down it even further soon by filling his echo chamber with the megaphone of a Trump News Network.

Future Challenges

So long as this constituency exists, ideological opportunists sharing Trump’s views will seek it out. Trumpism will inspire new Trumpist politicians (or anti-politicians) to rise up and contest Congressional elections all over the country. These Trumpist politicians will depend on Trump’s good graces to maintain inroads with this base of voters, hence making Trump not simply a President with a four-year tenure but a founder of a movement that can last much longer. Moderate segments of the Republican party are likely to lose a lot of territories.

It is further possible that the representatives of Trump Party will adopt a primary goal of obstructionism. They will aim to thwart the establishment wherever possible, hence delivering their base with catharsis rather than policy outcome (which is what they derive from this movement).

The Republican establishment will face a fundamental choice much like they faced with Trump: accommodate or resist. Resistance would lead to a right-wing split that the Democrats would thrive on. It would suit both the Republicans and the Trump Party to have the Republicans accommodate the Trumpists by lending them political leverage or minimal resistance (while publicly distancing themselves from the Trump Party) and in exchange having the Trump Party vote with the Republicans whenever they have a joint interest in blocking Democrat proposals.

The filibustering and obstructionism during the Obama years will pale compared to what this alliance will be prepared to do after the next mid-terms. Looking at the last six years, who had power? Was it Obama? Or was it the obstructionists whose only goal was to thwart him at every turn? Call this fantasy, but this is Trump’s fantasy, and he has an uncanny knack of making nightmares come true. Prepare for Trumpism 2020.


Timothy Potenz is a PhD candidate at the War Studies Department of King’s College London. He researches on the relationship between national self-image and susceptibility to pro-war arguments. He is specifically interested in contemporary issues of populism, media fragmentation, and Anglo-American military intervention. All views expressed in the above articles are solely of the author.


Image credit: Available at http://www.decodedc.com/on-the-campaign-trail-with-donald-and-bernie/

Filed Under: Blog Article Tagged With: Donald Trump, Elections, feature, USA

After the DNC: Hillary Clinton and the discontent of the Sandernistas

August 5, 2016 by Andrew Smith

By: Andrew Smith

shutterstock_386144416

 

Image Credit: http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-386144416.html

 

The Democrats need to unite their party or risk conceding the White House to Mr. Trump

The DNC is over and yet again the Democrats showed that they know how to put on a show. From the highly personal speech of former president Bill Clinton, who presented his wife and current presidential nominee Secretary Hillary Clinton in a very human manner, to the emotional addresses of both Obama’s, the most notable theme throughout the four day convention was the optimistic manner in which the convention presented the United States. This stood in stark contrast to the Republican convention the week earlier which mainly concentrated on denouncing Clinton and promoting Trump’s agenda of fear.[1] Given the differing political rhetorics of both presidential nominees this perhaps came as no great surprise.

Throughout the four-day convention however it was Secretary Clinton’s ex-rival, Senator Bernie Sanders, and his supporters, who arguably had one of the most significant impacts, as he is - and they are - also likely to do so in the coming months. Day one of the convention in particular highlighted the polarisation that currently exists within the Democratic party and within American politics more widely. Die-hard Sanders supporters protested on the streets of Philadelphia, the host city of the DNC, and within the convention hall itself at the prospect of a Clinton presidency.[2]

These types of images are unusual for a party convention which are more traditionally seen as one last grand celebration of each party’s presidential nominee, culminating with the formal nomination and acceptance speech, before the final toils of the campaign in the months leading up to election day. They are also about setting the agenda and the tone of the campaign for the closing months and beginning to make decisions on which issues will be prioritised, and will create the more appealing headlines in an effort to convince the undecided voters. More importantly conventions are about unification. Whilst most Democratic officials have rallied around Clinton’s campaign, the 2016 DNC showed a raucous minority of the electorate certainly has not.

What the DNC brought to the fore was that, seemingly, the Sandernistas are as defiant in their acceptance of Clinton as Trump supporters are in their ignorance of any logical narratives suggesting that just perhaps he is not the man to ‘make America great again.’[3] Sanders supporters depict Secretary Clinton as the quintessential candidate of the establishment they despise. Someone who represents those at fault for wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria; who colludes with Wall Street for political funding, leverage and progression and; stands for those whom are in favour of neoliberal policies which Sanders supporters feel have neglected the poorest in American society for the past three to four decades. She is also portrayed as a president who will assure the prolongation of the in-fighting of party politics which has characterised much of the Obama administration and has hindered progress on an array of issues; gun control being debatably the most infamous. In short the die-hard Sanders supporters want to see large scale overhauls in the American political system. It is in this divergence of opinions where the division within the party resides. Clinton needs to address this disunity and quickly. If she is to become the first female president of the United States it could ultimately be down to her ability to convince these hard-line Sanders supporters to vote for her.

For Hillary Clinton the principal concern is not that these voters will vote for Donald Trump but that they will not vote at all. Many Sanders supporters, and many party unaffiliated voters - who make up the majority of the electorate - are reluctant in having to choose between the lesser of two evils. In an election of such importance Clinton needs as much of the US public as possible to go to the polls for her. Senator Sanders could play a crucial role in ensuring this.

His powerful delivery on day one of the DNC was his most convincing speech to date whereby he proclaimed his support for Secretary Clinton and where he endorsed her stance on some, although notably not all, issues including: the economy, health care, climate change, the Supreme Court and more.[4] His speech’s recurring phrase of ‘Hillary understands’ was significant and suggested real progress was made during the party’s platform in the weeks prior. It was the second day however where Sanders’ impact was most felt when he ended the roll call vote with his acclamation for Secretary Clinton from his Vermont delegation.[5] This hugely symbolic gesture was a clear stride towards party unification and should not be devalued.

Secretary Clinton’s response to the division in the party during her acceptance speech was typically Clinton-like and yet untypical at the same time.[6] Whilst she did not acknowledge her criticisms directly, she also did not go on the defensive, as seems to have become her norm, and addressed the fact there are many people who just don’t know what to make of her. She also returned the compliments Bernie Sanders paid to her by directly commenting on the economic and social issues that gave the Sanders campaign so much momentum during the primaries and assured his voters that she has heard them, and that she needed their ‘ideas, energy and passion’ to ensure real change in America. She may not have had the poetry and natural public speaking ability of Barack Obama or her husband but this was an effective speech that left no stone unturned. A delivery that accurately reflected the type of politician she is and potential president she could become.

Regardless of all the statements made by Clinton herself, the generous motions by Sanders and the endorsement of high profile politicians and celebrities alike, Clinton will know she faces an uphill struggle in the months ahead if she is to convince the Sandernistas to vote for her on November 8th. Most worryingly is that the gap between her and this minority is one she may be powerless to bridge. She could attempt to smooth relations; starting perhaps by accepting some degree of responsibility for the email scandal, although this has become ever the less likely after the FBI ruling.[7] Nevertheless even if the potential trade-offs, where they do exist, see her gain ground it may still not be enough to help her claim the White House.

One thing that can be said for Donald Trump is that he may not have the backing of many of his own party but at least he has his hardline voters in order, and as the recent British EU referendum has shown, it is they, the voters, who will decide the direction in which the country will progress, regardless of how small the margin.[8]

 

 

Andrew is currently pursuing his MA in Conflict, Security & Development at King’s College London after attaining his BA in Criminology. Andrew has a specialist interest in private military and security companies, and natural resources & armed conflict, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. He has previously interned as a political and security risk analyst within the private extractive industries for both BP and Halliburton. You can follow him on Twitter @agsmith_93.

 

 

 

Notes:

[1] ‘2016 Republican national convention: a look back – in pictures,’ The Guardian (24 July 2016), http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/jul/24/republican-national-convention-look-back-in-pictures

[2] ‘Bernie Sanders Backers March Against Hillary Clinton in Philadelphia,’ International New York Times (24 July 2016), http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/25/us/politics/protests-convention-bernie-sanders-philadelphia.html?_r=1

[3] ‘33 Percent of Bernie Sanders Supporters Will Not Vote for Hillary Clinton. Here’s Why,’ The Huffington Post (16 March 2016), http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/33-percent-of-bernie-sanders-not-vote-hillary_b_9475626.html

[4] ‘Sen. Bernie Sanders’ full speech from the DNC,’ Politico (26 July 2016), http://www.politico.com/video/2016/07/sen-bernie-sanders-full-speech-from-the-dnc-060086

[5] PBS NewsHour. “Bernie Sanders surprises crowd, moves to nominate Clinton by voice vote at the 2016 DNC.” Youtube video, 4:45. July 26, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9tMnZKsRPY

[6] ‘Hillary Clinton Begins Building Her Coalition,’ The Atlantic (29 July 2016), http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/07/live-coverage-of-the-democratic-national-convention-day-4/493385/

[7] ‘Statement by FBI Director James B. Comey on the Investigation of Secretary Hillary Clinton’s Use of a Personal E-Mail System,’ Federal Bureau of Investigation, 5 July 2016.

[8] ‘EU Referendum Results,’ BBC News (24 June 2016), http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

Filed Under: Blog Article Tagged With: Elections, feature, Hilary Clinton, President, United States

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