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Daniel Ortega: Weapons of COVID-19 Destruction

November 27, 2020 by Roisin Murray

by Roisin Murray

A Nicaraguan woman wears a facemask, against the advice of Danial Ortega and his government (Image credit: Reuters/Oswaldo Rivas)

While governments worldwide grapple with the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, Nicaragua’s President Daniel Ortega adopted an alternative approach: exploiting the pandemic to bolster his autocracy. In power since 2007, his presidency is marked by accusations of political repression and forced censorship. Topping this list is a criminally irresponsible government during the pandemic. Social distancing measures remain non-existent; while COVID-19 statistics are rejected as fabrications. In brief, as Salazar Mather notes: Nicaragua’s response to the pandemic is ‘perhaps the most erratic of any country in the world to date.’ Unrestrained by concerns for public health in Nicaragua, Ortega is now actively strengthening his hold on power building on a new COVID-19 culture espoused by the government. Adding further credence to his socialist ideology, while simultaneously curtailing civil rights in the country, Ortega effectively weaponised the pandemic, wielding it against his own people for power gains.

According to Pearson, Prado, and Colburn, Daniel Ortega’s inaction towards the pandemic is a calculated political decision to safeguard the economy in order to retain electoral support. Even more, as the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change asserts: populist leaders like Danial Ortega actively ‘downplay’ the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic for political gain. While the majority of nations are retaining decisive countermeasures against the virus in, Ortega and his government actively flout any kind of guidance given by world health authorities. Schools and businesses remain open, while large scale public events such as sporting fixtures proceeded with government support. In the most damning indictment, a mass walk (‘Love In the Time of Covid-19’) intended to show the strength of solidarity against the virus.

Commentators attribute Ortega’s pandemic response to his priority of taking the health of the country’s economy over that of its populace. Indeed, in a televised address in April, Ortega reasoned that ‘if a country stops working, it dies.’ Due to the lack of state planning undertaken by the government, Nicaraguan citizens are forced to become personally accountable for the response to the pandemic. Business owners close shops on their own initiative, and a majority of individuals choose to wear masks even though it is not mandated by the government. By contrast, reports mention that healthcare workers are dissuaded from wearing masks in healthcare settings. Ortega is also actively obstructing relief provided by independent bodies. For example, the government did not allow the Diocese of Matagalpa to establish a call centre to dispense COVID-19 related advice to Nicaraguan citizens. It all serves as a reminder to the Nicaraguan people that Ortega and his political decisions have supreme authority, even - and most especially - in matters of life or death.

Protestors during a state-sanctioned march called “Love in the time of COVID-19” (Image credit: Reuters/Oswaldo Rivas)

The pandemic response in Nicaragua also serves a clear ideological agenda, with the intent to demonstrate the superiority of socialist countries over their ‘imperial’ adversaries. Consequently, Ortega is waging a campaign of deliberate misinformation with regards to COVID-19 statistics. As of May 2020, the COVID-19 Citizen Observatory, an independent group of Nicaraguan healthcare professionals, recorded the pandemic’s death toll as almost ten times larger than the official government figures. The disparity in results can be attributed to the Ministry of Health’s manipulation. Healthcare professionals also reported that deaths related to the pandemic are intentionally covered up, describing the cause of death as diabetes, hypertension, or other, unrelated respiratory diseases.

Ortega employs these artificially low COVID-19 statistics to legitimise his position in Nicaragua’s ideological battle with the United States, which imposes economic sanctions against the country since 2018. In a televised announcement in April 2020, Ortega argued that the pandemic was a ‘sign from God’ and highlighted the US’ inability to provide sufficient healthcare and support for its citizens. Instead, Ortega’s assertion that there is no community transmission of the virus within Nicaragua other than ‘imported’ cases paints a stark contrast. Again, ideological legitimacy comes at a cost for the Nicaraguan citizens.

Against this backdrop of state denial and dismissal, the Ortega government are quelling internal dissent against the regime. Since the pro-democracy protests of April 2018, in which over three-hundred persons were killed by the state forces, political opposition in Nicaragua remains under attack. The Nicaraguan government has taken drastic steps to restrict opposition through statutory means. At the end of September, Ortega’s party proposed a draconian new law to the National Assembly which would criminalise the dissemination of ‘fake news’ on social media, carrying a sentence of up to four years imprisonment. The law covers ‘the publication or dissemination of false (or) distorted information, likely to spread anxiety, anguish or fear.’

By the same token, Ortega’s denial of COVID-19 in Nicaragua and his lack of transparency concerning the pandemic set a distorted standard for what constitutes ‘fake news’. For example, legitimate public and medical concerns over the pandemic are repeatedly portrayed by the government as unduly hyperbolic and inaccurate. In April 2019, for example, Ortega opposed public campaigns urging Nicaraguans to stay at home, referring to those who endorsed such campaigns as ‘radicals’ and ‘extremists’. Reports of widespread ‘express burials’, utilised to conceal the extent of the pandemic, are similarly rejected by the government as fake. Consequently, the aforementioned censorship law, already passed by the Nicaraguan Congress, could be used to attack individuals circulating non-government sanctioned truth and guidance pertaining to the virus. The result of this repression is a death sentence in the making for many Nicaraguans.

In Nicaragua, the pandemic is a vehicle to further restrict the civil rights of Nicaraguans and discourage non-conformity to the regime. While the public intends to take measures into their own hands, the government is working to actively discourage any such actions. COVID-19 is also a tool for the government to reinforce its grip over Nicaragua, with the country’s citizens bearing the brunt of this new pandemic tyranny with their lives. As a weapon, President Ortega is the militant brandishing COVID-19.


Roisin Murray is currently working as a researcher at a private security consultancy. She holds an MA in International Relations from King’s College London. Her research interests include diplomacy, authoritarian regimes and counter-terrorism.

Filed Under: Blog Article, Feature Tagged With: autocracy, civil rights, COVID-19, denial, dismissal, heath, Nicaragua, Ortega, roisin murray

Chavez Versus Maduro: Who Did It Worse?

May 29, 2019 by Roisin Murray

by Roisin Murray

29 May 2019

Hero vs. Scapegoat? (BBC)

For most of the late twentieth-century, Venezuela was considered the most stable democracy in Latin America, held up as an example for its volatile Latin American neighbours. Venezuela is renowned for being a country rich in natural assets. It is a major producer of oil, as well as a manufacturer of other goods such as gold, diamonds and natural gas. Yet, despite the abundance of its resources, a combination of chronic government mismanagement, corruption and a failed socialism project has meant that Venezuela is on the brink of implosion. The fate of Venezuela is key for the West as the Venezuelan crisis risks wreaking havoc with the international oil market, which would be particularly damaging to its main oil customer, the United States. Challenges to Nicholas Maduro’s legitimacy as President during the escalating political situation have begged the question: who is to blame for the collapse of Venezuela?

This question cannot be answered without considering Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez. Venezuela’s socialism was the brainchild of Chavez, but his death in 2013 meant he failed to experience the widespread poverty and mass emigration induced partially by his policies. In order to address the question of where culpability lies for the current crisis in Venezuela, this article will scrutinise Chavez and Maduro’s policies and their social impact on the Venezuelan people. This will help to contextualise the origins of the unrest in Venezuela and demonstrate to what extent the cause of the chaos can be attributed to Maduro’s policies, or inherited from his predecessor. Ultimately, this article will seek to demonstrate that Chavez orchestrated the disaster, while Maduro simply executed it.

Ideology

Venezuela’s foray into socialism can be traced to Hugo Chavez, an army officer who called for a ‘Bolivarian Revolution’ drawing on the legacy of Simon Bolivar, the leader of Venezuelan liberation. Chavez was elected president in 1998 after two unsuccessful government coups. He won the election on the platform of redistributing power to the people, a refreshing divergence from the corruption that had dominated the politics of the mainstream political parties for the preceding twenty-five years. In reality, however, Chavez’s presidency did not signify an end to corruption in Venezuela. Rather, he orchestrated a regime that was run according to patronage and nepotism. Furthermore, the ambiguity surrounding the government’s finances also contributed to Venezuela’s poor score on the Transparency International corruption perception index, which ranked the country 165th out of 180 countries in 2012. Nevertheless, the hallmark of Chavez’s rule was his ‘socialist’ agenda, which manifested itself in high government spending, redistribution of wealth and the nationalisation of Venezuelan industries. Chavez managed to win the trust of the working classes by injecting public money into social welfare programmes. One of the most notable merits of his government was the transformation of the ‘ranchos’ or shanty towns. However, as Webber highlights, his leftist, socialist ideology was not a permanent feature of his leadership. Rather, when Chavez entered office as ‘moderately reformist’, his socialist policies conversely began to develop in response to challenges from the right. And, even then, Chavez’s pseudo socialism remained built upon a market-focused approach to the predominantly private-sector economy.

Dissent intensifies as Maduro clings to power (Opensourceinvestigations.com)

Nicholas Maduro assumed power in 2013 following the death of Chavez, his former mentor. Previously a bus driver, he was quick to emphasise his humble origins, immediately establishing an affiliation with the working classes. Maduro appeared fully invested in Chavez’s socialist brainchild. He continued to rule Venezuela with greatly regulated price controls and a highly centralised, hands-on economy- all hallmarks of aspiring socialist regimes. He lacked the presence and charisma of Chavez, but secured legitimacy for his actions by constantly referring to Chavez’s memory and the longevity of his legacy. In this sense, Chavez’s shadow was never far from Maduro’s course of action. Unfortunately, Maduro’s tendency to follow the precedent set by Chavez was particularly replicated in his use of corrupt governance to rule. He centralised his power by establishing a more loyal Constitution Assembly under the rule of a new Constitution, thereby undercutting the opponent led legislature, the National Assembly. He further secured the allegiance of the military by offering it control over profitable businesses. For both Chavez and Maduro, corrupt practices seemed to be instrumental in propping up their regimes.

Economy

Chavez’s socialist dream was primarily financed by the surging price of oil, a material that Venezuela is fortuitously rich in and built its entire economic infrastructure around. Large investments in social programmes, facilitated by the country’s oil reserves, transformed the lives of poor Venezuelans and did much to bolster Chavez’s approval rating. However, the gains that Chavez made for the poor of Venezuela were negated by his eventual decimation of the Venezuelan economy under the auspices of implementing ‘socialism’. Government overspending caused rampant inflation, culminating in a recession in 2014 shortly after Chavez’s death. Furthermore, foreign investment stagnated under Chavez: revenue produced by foreign investment in 2004 amounted to $1.5 billion, in comparison to almost $5 billion in 1998. Culpability for the economic ills of Venezuela cannot be far removed from Chavez’s hands. As Corrales and Penfold point out, Chavez’s level of power over the economy was unparalleled, even in comparison to other leftist regimes of the era.

Venezuela’s persistent over-reliance on oil, initiated by Chavez and inherited by Maduro, became a contentious issue when the oil boom imploded and prices plummeted around the time of Chavez’s death in 2013. Maduro’s solution to prop up the failing economy was to print more money, thus devaluing the Bolivarian currency further. The combination of these ineffective fiscal economic solutions, widespread corruption and gross mismanagement precipitated an economic and political collapse. Nevertheless, Maduro attempted to continue the socialist legacy that Chavez had begun, despite the economic circumstances rendering this course of action unfeasible. Maduro increased the national minimum wage on six separate occasions in 2018, but the positive effects of this move were negligible given the rate of hyperinflation. Maduro is a living proof that Chavez’s socialist experiment was completely unfeasible in the long-term, but stubborn persistence regardless signed Venezuela’s death warrant.

Social Impact

In the short-term, life for Venezuelans had been rejuvenated by Chavez’s measures. Between 2005 and 2014 unemployment rates and poverty rates fell by 50% and infant mortality plummeted. Workers were met with increased increments to the minimum wage, and literacy levels increased sharply. However, the improved lives of Venezuelans cannot be attributed solely to Chavez, and to do so risks overstating the impact of his policies at the expense of minimising the role of oil. As Canon argued, ‘the oil boom has without a doubt contributed an inordinate amount to the current upswing in growth and reduction in poverty.’ And even when society gave the impression of flourishing, this Chavez inspired ‘age of prosperity’ was built on shaky, unsustainable foundations. Chavez’s policies drummed up substantial national debt, and this ‘boom’ paved the way for the inevitable ‘bust’ when the oil prices crashed.

Venezuelan citizens queue for food as shortages worsen (Wall Street Journal)

Nobody has felt the effect of this escalating hyperinflation more than the citizens of Venezuela. Inflation levels have peaked at 1.7 million per cent, obliterating people’s life savings. Savings in bolivars equivalent to $10,000 at the beginning of 2018 only amounted to 59 cents by the end of the year. Widespread malnutrition has emerged due to basic food shortages, with Venezuelan citizens losing a median of twenty-four pounds in weight during 2017. Venezuela’s healthcare system also lies in tatters. Hospitals are lacking in vital supplies, and many HIV-positive and cancer patients are facing shortages of their medication. The growing dissatisfaction with Venezuelan life is reflected in the rate at which citizens are fleeing the country; 1.5 million people emigrated between 2014 and 2017. For those that remain in Venezuela dissent is not easy to express. Censorship of the media obscures the reality of the crisis and the Venezuelan police harshly subdue protesters with tear gas, and on occasion, bullets. Maduro’s recent measures have also resulted in the incarceration of protestors as political prisoners, causing an uproar from human rights groups.

Conclusion

Maduro is bearing the brunt of the criticism from the international community on the handling of the Venezuelan crisis- and rightly so. His economic ‘solutions’ to the recession have only worsened Venezuela’s economic position, he has rejected vital international aid and his authoritarian response to dissenting voices has demonstrated his unwillingness to be held accountable. But it would be injudicious to forget Chavez’s part in determining the crisis. The situation he created formed a set of unsustainable preconditions that Maduro was bound by when he inherited leadership of the country. His policies, that promised to uplift the lower classes, were inadvertently responsible for their being plunged into poverty years down the line. His irresponsible economic measures and unsustainable ideals set Venezuela on a course to crash and burn- but just not during his lifetime. Both Maduro and Chavez should be held equally accountable, whether they are here to face the charges or not.


Roisin Murray is currently working as a researcher at a private security consultancy. She holds an MA in International Relations from King’s College London. Her research interests include diplomacy, authoritarian regimes and counter-terrorism.


Bibliography

Canon, Barry. Hugo Chávez and the Bolivarian Revolution. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2009.

Ellner, Steve and Miguel Tinker Salas. “The Venezuelan Exceptionalism Thesis: Separating Myth from Reality.” Latin American Perspectives 32, no.2 (2005): 5-19, https://www.jstor.org/stable/30040273.

Webber, Jeffery R. “Venezeula Under Chavez: The Prospects and Limitations of Twenty-First Century Socialism, 1999-2009.” Socialist Studies: the Journal of the Society for Socialist Studies 6, no.1 (2010): 11-44, http://dx.doi.org/10.18740/S47W2R.

Corrales, Javier and Michael Penfold. The Dragon in the Tropics: Hugo Chavez and the Political Economy of Revolution in Venezuela. Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2011.

Gunson, Phil.”Chavez’s Venezuela.” Current History 105, no.688 (2006): 58-63, https://search.proquest.com/docview/200735447?rfr_id=info%3Axri%2Fsid%3Aprimo.

Filed Under: Blog Article Tagged With: authoritarianism, chavez, corruption, maduro, roisin murray, socialism, Venezuela

Saudi Arabia: The Wind of Change?

April 30, 2018 by Roisin Murray

By Roisin Murray

Bin Salman ushers in a new era for Saudi Arabia?

With a historical legacy as the foremost theocratic state in the Sunni Muslim sphere, political developments in Saudi Arabia that threaten to challenge its conservative, religious identity are significant.[1] The domestic situation of Saudi Arabia is a concern for many foreign governments; states worldwide are reliant on Saudi oil, and Saudi Arabia is vital to the security of the Gulf region.[2] The international community has focused its attention on Saudi Arabia, as Prince bin Salman continues to implement his modernisation agenda under the banner of ‘Vision 2030’. Bin Salman, who previously held the position of defence minister, is the son of King Salman and has been named the successor to the throne. The latest development in bin Salman’s reform agenda has seen him embark upon an anti-corruption crusade directed at upper-level elites, crystallising in the detention of 325 top officials in Ritz-Carlton hotel on corruption charges. Thus, this article will discuss the recent corruption crusade in light of the wider reformist drive. Essentially, it will analyse to what extent this crackdown on fraudulent practice in business is a logical expansion of bin Salman’s blueprint for modernisation, or rather a smokescreen to distract from the pervading, growing autocracy of the kingdom.

These reforms are part of bin Salman’s wider drive for modernisation of the Kingdom, enshrined in his ‘Vision 2030’ blueprint. Traditionally, Saudi Arabia’s hegemony has remained wholly uncontested. Its national identity has been built on its role as ultraconservative Kingdom, greatly influenced by Islamic clericalism and financed by a state -sponsored oil industry. Bin Salman’s push for modernisation and diversification of the Saudi economy comes at a critical time. The financial situation of the Kingdom is precarious, following a decline in oil prices and the rising expense associated with participation in the war in Yemen. Bin Salman aspires to transform the Kingdom into a more expansive economy, driven by private investment and renowned for its ingenuity. However, systemic corruption is an obstacle to bin Salman’s precious roadmap.

Bin Salman’s so-called anti-corruption purges saw approximately 325 figures from Saudi’s elite placed in detention for eighty days under corruption and embezzlement charges. The ensuing investigation saw finances audited and personal bank accounts frozen. Yet, as January came to a close, bin Salman released the majority of those who had been detained in the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh, as their accounts faced scrutiny from analysts. A reported $100 billion was recovered by the Saudi government, following the end of a three-month investigation into charges of corruption amongst high-ranking royal families and businessmen. Over three hundred of the detainees managed to secure their freedom following a financial settlement which included an exchange of commercial property, stocks and cash. A full breakdown has not been made public, raising concerns that state business continues to be conducted behind closed doors, with little regulation. Accusations that the crackdown was the result of a nefarious political agenda, seeking to target individuals who were critics of the Prince, are rife. The private nature of the negotiations exposes the hollowness of bin Salman’s reforms. Traditionally, Saudi decision-making has been notably opaque ‘in the form of decrees with a flavour of palace intrigue’.[3] The continuation of such policies when addressing the lack of transparency in business dealings is somewhat ironic. Furthermore, it also emphasises bin Salman’s failure to challenge the lack of accountability of the royal family.

Those advocating change in Saudi Arabia applaud bin Salman’s reforms, which seek to promote accountability for financial malpractice in business ventures. However, his plans for the nation do not come risk-free. There is the likelihood that such practices will hamper potential foreign investment, while investment at home potentially stalls. Bin Salman’s excessive centralisation of the government and the nonchalance with which he requisitions assets does not exactly endear domestic investors.

The crusade to eradicate the corruption plaguing the upper echelons of Saudi Arabia is only one element of bin Salman’s wider template for modernisation. Bin Salman has already announced his intention to lead the Kingdom back to moderate Islam and has sought to curb the excesses of the religious police force. But the reform which has garnered widespread international attention is the lifting of the notorious ban on female drivers, to be enacted in June. Female liberation in Saudi Arabia has been further compounded by women’s increased access to the public sphere, enshrined in new legislation which permits them to attend football games.

Yet, beneath the surface of these progressive developments, Saudi Arabian despotism only continues to strengthen. A recent centralisation of the power structure has afforded bin Salman almost uncontested power, highlighted by the extensive responsibilities bestowed upon him; he now enjoys control of the Defence, Foreign, Finance and Petroleum ministries.[4] Recent restructuring of the governing body means that decision-making has become highly exclusive, a privilege reserved for the elite.[5] Bin Salman has carved a position from where he can pursue his hawkish foreign policy goals, exemplified by Saudi intervention Yemen.[6] Thus, bin Salman’s reforms can be seen in the context of a diversion technique to distract from the growing tyrannical and coercive nature of the Kingdom.

Bin Salman is not only the driving force behind ‘Vision 2030’ but is also the fresh new face of Saudi Arabia’s public relations. Symbolic visits to the NATO headquarters and the White House suggest approval for bin Salman in the Western world, which has largely, and conveniently, ignored bin Salman’s continued centralization of power.[7] Yet, Hammond contends that the tendency of the Western states to endorse Saudi Arabia’s ‘empty discourse of reform, with its essentially limited gains’ is influenced by an ulterior motive;[8] their concern for stability in the Kingdom, given that it provides essential services to governments in the West.[9]

Ultimately, bin Salman’s reformist agenda is a red herring, and merely a pretext for bin Salman to pave his way to a Saudi Arabian autocracy. The anti-corruption purges are evidence of bin Salman’s far-reaching influence and power, and the lack of transparency in the final negotiations have thus far been excused. While it is easy to welcome the progressive social developments, on deeper analysis they seem tainted by a nefarious agenda; these ‘reforms’ are simply symbolic concessions to placate the international community and divert attention from bin Salman’s escalating power drive. The wind of change is blowing, but it is not strong enough to dislodge the authoritarianism of the Saudi royal family.

 


 

Roisin Murray is currently undertaking an MA in International Relations at King’s College London. She holds an undergraduate history degree from University College Dublin. Her research interests include diplomacy, counter-terrorism and insurgency, particularly in the context of the Middle East.


Notes

[1] Joseph Nevo, “Religion and National Identity in Saudi Arabia,” Middle Eastern Studies 34, no.3 (1998): 35,https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00263209808701231?needAccess=true&instName=King%27s+College+London-

[2] Tim Niblock, Saudi Arabia: Power, Legitimacy and Survival (Abingdon: Routledge, 2006): 1.

[3] Hamid Hussain, “Royal Rumble: Dynamics of Saudi Royal Family,” Defense Journal 21, no.1 (August 2017): 50.

[4] Umer Karim, “The Evolution of Saudi Foreign Policy and the Role of Decision-making Processes and Actors,” The International Spectator 52, no.2 (2017): 77, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/03932729.2017.1308643?needAccess=true&instName=King%27s+College+London

[5] Karim, “The Evolution of Saudi Foreign Policy’, 82.

[6] Karim, “The Evolution of Saudi Foreign Policy’, 82.

[7] Karim, “The Evolution of Saudi Foreign Policy’, 76.

[8] Andrew Hammond, The Islamic Utopia: The Illusion of Reform in Saudi Arabia (London: Pluto Press, 2012): 231.

[9]Hammond, The Islamic Utopia, 231.


Image Source:

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/politics-economics/386638-saudi-arabia-releases-two-princes-after-corruption-probe


Bigliography

Hammond, Andrew. The Islamic Utopia: The Illusion of Reform in Saudi Arabia. London: Pluto Press, 2012.

Hussain, Hamid. “Royal Rumble: Dynamics of Saudi Royal Family.” Defense Journal 21, no.1 (August 2017): 50-56, https://search.proquest.com/openview/783c8d01468270b5a07a0f4fb0fafc92/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=616545

Karim, Umer. “The Evolution of Saudi Foreign Policy and the Role of Decision-making Processes and Actors.” The International Spectator 52, no.2 (2017): 71-88. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/03932729.2017.1308643?needAccess=true&instName=King%27s+College+London

Nevo, Joseph. “Religion and National Identity in Saudi Arabia.” Middle Eastern Studies 34, no.3 (1998): 34-53. 35, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00263209808701231?needAccess=true&instName=King%27s+College+London-

Niblock, Tim. Saudi Arabia: Power, Legitimacy and Survival. Abingdon: Routledge, 2006.

Filed Under: Blog Article Tagged With: Bin Salman, corruption, Diplomacy, feature, MBS, roisin murray, Saudi Arabia

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