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Strife Series: Arctic Maritime Security – Introduction

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The USS Connecticut breaks though the ice March 9, 2018 in support of Ice Exercise 2018. Source: United States Navy, in the public domain.

The Arctic is a region of enduring geopolitical importance that is receiving more and more attention. Climate change is literally changing the map in the Arctic as seasonal sea ice continues to recede. This has the potential to significantly change the region by opening up new sea routes through Northern Canada or along Russia’s Northern coast. It will also open up new areas to resource extraction from near virgin Arctic fisheries to some of the world’s largest untapped oil and natural reserves. Melting sea ice also emphasizes the region’s unique maritime character, the Arctic is an ocean – not a continental landmass, and decreasing ice will only increase it’s maritime character. The changing climate will also cause problems in the Arctic littoral as the changes in seasonal weather patterns stress wildlife populations and threaten local and indigenous communities through rapid erosion and permafrost melt.

Against the backdrop of climate change, geopolitical tensions in the Arctic are also rising. In their essay, Lauren Chin and Andro Mathewson detail the increasing tension and “securitization” of interests in the Arctic. Over the last decade Russia has been the chief driver or militarization in the Arctic. Russia’s years-long military modernization has reopened “50 previously closed, Soviet-era military posts,” established an Arctic Strategic Command, and conducted repeated exercises with modernized military equipment. In her essay, Alice Staikowski explains how resource competition in the Arctic may continue to drive competition, especially between Russia and the West.

At the same time, China has also expressed a strong desire to protect its perceived interests in the Arctic and declared itself as a “near Arctic state,” despite its geographic distance and nearly non-existent historical ties to the region. How China and Russia negotiate their relationship in the Arctic will play a key part in defining the future of the region. In her essay Henny Lie-Skarpholt talks about Chinese influence in the Arctic. One particular facet of competition in the Arctic is icebreaking fleets, which are critical enablers for trade, resource extraction and even military operations in the High North. In his essay Dylan Phillips-Levine argues that the US Navy needs to invest in its own fleet of ice breakers which will be even more important if sea routes through Russian and Canadian waters gain importance.

It’s also important to recognize that while tensions in the Arctic are rising, they are not new. The were important naval actions fought in the Arctic during the Second World War and it was a key front during the Cold War, partly because the shortest route between the US and the USSR for missiles and bombers was over the North Pole. In his essay, Timothy Choi discusses the history of the Royal Danish Navy in Arctic security, an overlooked but critical contribution.

The ongoing war in Ukraine, which started after these essays were written, will have important but still unknown impacts on the Arctic as well. Russia’s only border with the United States falls just South of the Arctic Circle in the Pacific, and one of NATO’s borders with Russia, between Norway and Russia, falls within the Arctic Circle so increased military tensions between Russia and the alliance are likely to play out in the Arctic. But it’s also possible that the war in Ukraine will draw in Russian forces from across the country and could actually diminish Russian military posture in the Arctic. Ships from Russia’s Northern Fleet were reportedly part of the buildup to war in Ukraine.

Taken together, this series of short essays provides a variety of perspectives on the maritime security in the High North. The authors, all from different backgrounds, provide valuable commentary and analysis that can be a jumping off point or introduction to a deeper investigation of maritime security in the Arctic.

Series on Women and Children’s Health in Conflict: Introduction

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MedGlobal Volunteer Performs Surgery at Al-Shifa Hospital in the Gaza Strip. Photo credit: MedGlobal, licensed under Creative Commons.

While conflict’s direct effects – deaths and injuries – often take the limelight, its indirect effects, including population displacement, infrastructure destruction and human insecurity commonly cause prolonged suffering that is greatly exacerbated by the length of conflict and persists long after direct hostilities cease. Though men tend to be affected more by the direct effects of a conflict, women and children, often held to be ‘vulnerable’ in context of conflict, are at much greater risk of suffering its indirect effects.[1]

This series seeks to promote the accounts of healthcare professionals who have first-hand experience dealing with medical and health issues related to women and children in protracted conflicts in the Eastern Mediterranean region. In doing so, it addresses a gap often found in scholarship of health in conflict seen from a top-down perspective, and instead foregrounds the micro-level picture. The four pieces included in the series, therefore, highlight issues which are neither routinely discussed nor prioritized.

The first article discusses maternal, sexual, and reproductive health in the Gaza Strip, and the differential levels of healthcare accessible dependent upon whether an attack is ongoing or has recently ended. In the second piece, the author shares her experience working in refugee camps in Jordan, where gender-based violence and discrimination against women are prevalent. The third article sheds light on child development in Gaza and how it is exacerbated by continual psychological trauma inflicted because of the protracted conflict and blockade. The final piece describes difficulties children with craniofacial anomalies and their families experience in accessing the care their children need in the midst of conflict and political disputes.

Publication Schedule

Part I: Maternal and Reproductive Health in the Gaza Strip: the impact of years of blockade and conflict by Maisara Alrayyes

Part II: The Voice of Gender: Shedding Light on the Impact of Emergencies and Armed Conflicts on the Health and Safety of Women and Girls by Asmaa Essa

Part III: The hidden face of the blockade and wars: Palestinian children with psychological wounds by Bahzad Alakhras

Part IV: Children with craniofacial anomalies in the Gaza Strip: treatment options and access to care by Wafaa Alzaanin

[1] Craig, Sophia. “Effects of Conflict on Societies.” In Conflict and Health, 14–24. Berkshire: McGraw-Hill Education, 2012.

Series on Memory, History and Power: Which door to which city? The Vraca Memorial Park and anti-fascism legacy in Sarajevo

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View from Vraca Memorial Park, 2015. Photo by the author

This article is a part of our Series on Memory, History, and Power.  Read the Series Introduction here.

From the slopes of mount Trebavić, you have a privileged view over Sarajevo. To get there, it is only a 20-minute walk from Grbavica, a popular residential neighbourhood built during Socialist Yugoslavia. Although short, the climb is quite literally breath-taking: the air pollution hits dangerous levels during the winter, the road doesn’t have proper pavements to protect you from high speed cars and, as soon as you arrive you are struck by a panoramic view over the whole capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Thus, it is not hard to understand why the original site’s name is Vratca, meaning ‘small door’. As soon as you get there, the view over Sarajevo gives you the impression that the place is a door to the city.

Due to its strategic place in the city, Vraca was coveted by different groups over the centuries. Successive occupying powers curated the place according to the role they attributed to Sarajevo. Whilst under the Austro-Hungarian Empire, in 1898, it was a military fortress. Later, during the Second World War, the site was transformed into a death field and burial ground, where Ustaše[1] executed thousands – mostly Jews, Serbs, communists and Partisans. Moreover, due to its position as ‘a door to the city’, it was used as a deportation hub, where prisoners were taken to concentration camps throughout the region. In total, at least 12,000 inhabitants of Sarajevo were killed by fascist forces. Their names were inscribed into the monument, which would be built almost four decades later at that site.

The Vraca Memorial Park was first conceived by veterans’ groups and authorities in Sarajevo as early as 1965. Around this time, other monuments and memorials were built to celebrate the National Liberation War, or Narodnooslobodilačka borba (NOB), as it was called in Yugoslavia the guerrilla-style liberation war led by the Yugoslav Partisans against the Axis occupying forces and their puppet regimes in the region. From the 1950s onwards, the Yugoslav authorities invested in the construction of thousands of monuments and memorials to the NOB, including large structures, such as the Monument to the Battle of Sutjeska, and many other smaller initiatives, such as plaques and sculptures. The NOB monuments occupied a special place inside the narrative of Yugoslavia, publicly demonstrating the centrality of the shared struggle against fascist forces, thereby creating an intra-ethnonational memory of suffering.[2] The abstract modernist-brutalist sculptures and memorials recall the days when Yugoslavia promoted ideals such as modernization and statehood, avoiding, at the same time, association with any particular ethnonational group.

Unlike other NOB monuments, that were built after Second World War and laid the basis for official narratives and memories of that period, Vraca Memorial Park took a long time to be constructed, in a moment where the economy was not so prosperous any longer.  It was only in 1981 that the six-hectare memorial was built, in an attempt to transform a place associated with suffering into a site of tribute and socio-political gathering. The memorial itself comprises several monuments addressing different categories of victims: one tomb is dedicated to ‘the city’s national heroes’, there is a memorial wall inscribed with around 12,000 names of those who were killed during the war, a tribute to women fighters and a monument to Tito, the leader of the Partisans through NOB/Second World War and Yugoslav leader until his death, in 1980.

Even though the Vraca Memorial Park was built in the 1980s, at a time of resurgence for ethno-nationalism in Yugoslavia, the memorial – which precisely claimed an anti-ethnonationalism approach – has played an important role in the life of the city for some time. It became a place that hosted mass gatherings, such as the Young Pioneer political youth group; a place to celebrate public anniversaries and holidays or to simply sit down and enjoy the view. A page dedicated to the monument states that ‘Vraca without a doubt was (…) a cultural landmark for the city and stood as one of Sarajevo’s enduring and unifying symbols during this time period’.

Ironically, despite being an antifascist memorial, Vraca was transformed ten years later, into one of the sites from which Bosnian Serb paramilitary forces (VRS) conducted the siege of Sarajevo, from 1992 to 1995. From Vraca, the VRS fired against the Bosnian capital, using heavy artillery or snipers. VRS operations against the people of Sarajevo were never recognized as genocide by an international court, but have been labelled an urbicide, a deliberate targeting of urban life, which involved the ‘destruction of buildings as a condition of possibility of being-with-others’.[3] From Vraca (and elsewhere), the agenda of ‘ethnonational cleansing’ targeted the shared histories, cultures and heritages in Sarajevo on a daily basis, destroying the city’s social tissue and hampering any possibility of a ‘normal life.’[4] As VRS general Ratko Mladic said, ‘go on with the artillery fire. Don’t let them sleep. Let’s make them crazy.’

The agenda of total destruction was carried out from the site. When VRS retreated, they left Vraca Memorial Park completely devastated, and its outskirts littered with anti-personnel mines. As politics of memorialization in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina were produced along ethnonational lines,[5] there have been a myriad of new monuments dedicated to the suffering of each constituent people (Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats). In a city such as Brčko, there are three different memorials in the main square dedicated to the victims of each ethnonational group. As churches and mosques were being rebuilt through the country, not surprisingly the Vraca Memorial Park, a unifying symbol, remained abandoned and vandalized. Many other NOB monuments suffered the same fate, not only in Bosnia but also in Croatia, Kosovo and North Macedonia. Some have completely vanished, much like the regime which constructed them.

Since 2005, Vraca Memorial Park has been declared a National Monument thanks to civil society groups, such as SABNOR (Association of Antifascists and Fighters of the People’s Liberation War in the Sarajevo Canton). Until very recently, however, this was not translated into a better care of the site, nor into its reintegration into the city’s public life.

Last year, memories of Second World War regained the streets of Sarajevo. On the 16th of May, a mass devoted to honour Ustaše troops and Axis-aligned civilians killed by partisans in 1945[6] was celebrated in Sarajevo Cathedral. Even though the city, and the world, was under the yoke of the Covid-19 pandemic, thousands of activists, members of anti-fascist organisations and citizens took the streets to protest against the religious service. One woman held a poster reminding people that ‘it doesn’t take that many fascists to make fascism’. The protest was a clear message that thousands of people will still stand against far-right movements that claim memories both from the Second World War and the 1990s wars. They showed that, although monument-building is a crucial practice to establish official narratives, ‘anti-fascism is not a monument’. It depends a lot on how people enact those positions, what they do and how they practise those memories from the past. From everyday practices such as cleaning, caring and curating Vraca by volunteers[7], to more public spectacles, such as the 2020 protest against the mass, it is clear that anti-fascism stances are very well alive. Both the May protests and the everyday silent work of curating Vraca are signs that citizens are willing to enact anti-fascism practices whenever they feel memories from the wars are being challenged, instrumentalized or simply facing oblivion. Recently, there was also a sign from Sarajevo authorities in the same direction. In 2019, at the anniversary of liberation of Sarajevo from fascist forces, the Eternal Flame at Vraca was again relight, after 27 years.

[1] Ustaše, led by Ante Pavelić, is the Croatian fascist movement that nominally ruled the Independent State of Croatia during Second World War. Among its aims, the Ustaše movement sought independence from Yugoslavia, and, once it was achieved, their goal was to create a ‘purely Croatian state’. Hundreds of thousands of Serb, Jewish, Muslim and Gypsy inhabitants were brutally killed in such attempt.

[2] Vladana Putnik, “Second World War Monuments in Yugoslavia as Witnesses of the Past and the Future,” Journal of Tourism and Cultural Change 14, no. 3 (2016): 206-21.

[3] Martin Coward, Urbicide. The Politics of Urban Destruction (London and New York: Routledge, 2008).

[4] Ivana Macek, Sarajevo Under Siege. Anthropology in Wartime (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2009).

[5] Jelena Subotić, Yellow Star, Red Star: Holocaust Remembrance after Communism (Cornell: Cornell University Press, 2019).

[6] The memorial mass is organized annually by the Croatian Church and held in Bleiburg, Austria, where sympathisers of Ustaše regime were killed by partisans. The commemoration has attracted thousands of people, and, more recently, has increasingly attracted overtly pro-Ustaše fascists. Due to sanitarian restrictions to prevent the spread of Covid-19, last year the borders with Austria were closed and, therefore, the mass was held elsewhere.

[7] Lydia Cole, Curating Vraca Memorial Park: Everyday Practice, Counter-Politics, and Counter- Monumentalism (Forthcoming).

Series on Memory, History and Power: Introduction

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The fallen Columbus after a group led by American Indian Movement members tore it down in Minnesota, 2020 | Photo by Tony Webster, used under Creative Commons.

Over the last years, we have seen disputes over statues and monuments all over the world. Memorials dedicated to military achievements, war heroes, colonialists and slave traders have been at the centre of debates on the deconstruction of history and the ways some events and national groups have been inscribed in the public space.  In 2019, for example, we saw Santiago, the capital of Chile, being occupied by protesters waving the flag of the indigenous Mapuche people. One particular image went viral all around the world: in the photo, dozens of protesters climb a military monument in the centre of Santiago and at the top of the statue, a man raises the Mapuche’s flag, a people that has been under attack in Chile since the arrival of Spanish colonizers, in the 16th century. In South Africa, the campaign Rhodes Must Fall led to the removal of a statue in honour of British imperialist Cecil Rhodes at the University of Cape Town. The withdraw flared up a discussion regarding what to do with other monuments to Rhodes around the country. In 2020, we saw similar scenes being repeated throughout Europe, United States and Latin America, when statues of slave trader Edward Colston, Columbus, Belgian King Leopold II and Portuguese Jesuit missionary Father António Vieira, just to name a few, woke up either, at the bottom of a river, painted in red, headless or wearing signs saying: ‘decolonize’. Such movements intended to problematise what is remembered in the public sphere and how those monuments relate to the way we conceive a country’s history or the history of colonialism and slavery.

‘There is no document of civilisation which is not at the same time a document of barbarism’[i], writes Walter Benjamin on his 7th thesis on the philosophy of History. For some, statues such as those of Colston, Rhodes and Vieira are symbols of civilisation. For many others, they are memories of massacres and genocides, symbols of barbarism. Monuments as, for example, the Padrão dos Descobrimentos, built in the memory of the infant Henry the Navigator – considered the patron of the 16th century Portuguese colonial expansion – represent the memory of the victors, they anchor history the way power wants it seen. That is the reason why, if we take Benjamin’s critique of history as a guide, we need to deconstruct such monuments built by hegemonic historical narratives. And what we have been seeing over recent years throughout the world are precisely such moments of such deconstruction.

That is to say that the debate over monuments and statues should be considered under a broader scope of history, memory and dynamics of power intertwined in both phenomena. In a recent article in the French newspaper Le Libération, Paul B. Preciado described statues as ‘prosthesis of historic memory that remind us the lives “that matter”’. They inscribe on public space the bodies that deserve to be immortalized in stone and metal. ‘Public sculptures’, he writes, ‘do not represent the people, they build it: they depict a national pure body and determine an ideal of colonial and sexual citizenship’. To critique history as celebrated by statues is, then, to critique the construction of the nation state itself. This series analyses both how events and characters are chosen to be marked in a city or a country’s landscape, and how art might disrupt national and imperial ideals, functioning sometimes as a sort of counter-memory.

Series Publication Schedule

  • Part I: Portugal: the return of the colonial war, by Miguel Cardina
  • Part II: Which door to which city? The Vraca Memorial Park and anti-fascism legacy in Sarajevo, by Renata Summa
  • Part III: Indigenous Uruguay: monuments, histories and memories, by Henrique Gasperin
  • Part IV: The Red Atlantic: modernity and markers of discrimination, by Victor Coutinho Lage
  • Part V: The Memory Sewing: alternative history(ies) of the past and present, by Mariana Caldas

[i] Walter Benjamin, ‘Theses on the Philosophy of History’ in Illuminations (New York: Schocken Books, 2007), p. 256.

Offensive Cyber Series: Amy Ertan on AI and Military Innovation, Part I

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Photo Credit: Mike MacKenzie, licensed via Creative Commons.

On Wednesday 17th March, Strife Interviewer Ed Stacey sat down with Amy Ertan to discuss offensive cyber in the context of artificial intelligence (AI) and military innovation. For part three of Strife’s Offensive Cyber Series, Ms Ertan discusses the current role of AI in offensive cyber and potential future trajectories, including effects on the offence-defence balance and arms racing, as well as her PhD research, which explores the unforeseen and unintended security consequences of developing and implementing military AI.

Ed Stacey: Amy, could you start by briefly defining AI in the context of offensive cyber. Are we really just talking about machine learning, for example?

Amy Ertan: Artificial intelligence is not just machine learning algorithms – it is a huge range of technologies. There is a whole history of AI that goes back to before the mid-1970s and late-80s: rule-based AI and knowledge-based AI which is, as it sounds, learning based on rules and logic. Then in the last decade or so we have seen a huge uptick in machine learning-based algorithms and its various sub-branches, including deep-learning and neural networks, which are incredibly complex algorithms that we cannot actually understand as humans. So, in summary, AI is a big umbrella term for different kinds of learning technologies.

At the same time, there is some snake oil in the market and a lot of what people call AI can just be probabilistic statistics. Being generous, some of the start-ups that you see are doing if-then algorithms that we could probably do on Excel. That does not, of course, account for the tech giant stuff. But when we talk about AI, we have everything from the super basic things that are not really AI to the incredibly well-financed, billion dollar projects that we see at Amazon, Microsoft and so on.

Machine learning is where a lot of today’s cutting edge research is. So the idea that you can feed data, potentially untagged data – unsupervised learning – into an algorithm, let the algorithm work through that and then make predictions based on that data. So, for example, you feed in three million pictures of cats and if the algorithm works as intended, it will then recognise what is and is not a cat.

In terms of how that fits into offensive cyber, AI is another tool in the toolkit. A learning algorithm, depending on how it is designed and used, will be just like any other cyber tool that you might have, only with learning technology within it. I would make the point that it is not something that we see being utilised today in terms of pure cyber attacks because it is not mature enough to be creative. The machine learning AI that we have right now is very good at narrow tasks, but you cannot just launch it and there is no “AI cyber attack” at the moment.

ES: How might AI enhance or facilitate offensive cyber operations?

AE: As I said, AI is not being used extensively today in offensive cyber operations. The technology is too immature, although we do see AI doing interesting things when it has a narrow scope – like voice or image recognition, text generation or predictive analytics on a particular kind of data set. But looking forward, there are very feasible and clear ways in which AI-enabled technologies might enhance or facilitate cyber operations, both on the offensive and defensive side.

In general, you can talk about the way that AI-enabled tools can speed up or scale up an activity. One example of how AI might enhance offensive cyber operations is through surveillance and reconnaissance. We see already, for example, AI-enabled tools being used in intelligence processing for imagery, like drone footage, saving a huge amount of time and vastly expanding the capacity of that intelligence processing. You could predict that being used to survey a cyber network.

Using AI to automate reconnaissance, to do that research – the very first stage of a cyber attack – is not a capability that you have now. But it would certainly enhance a cyber operation in terms of working out the best target at an organisation – where the weak link was, the best way in. So there is a lot that could be done.

ES: Are we talking then about simply an evolution of currently automated functions or does AI have the potential to revolutionise offensive cyber?

AE: In terms of whether AI will be just a new step or a revolution, generally my research has shown that it will be pretty revolutionary. AI-enabled technology has the power to revolutionise conflict and cyber conflict, and to a large extent that is through an evolution of automated functions and autonomous capabilities. I think the extent to which it is a full-blown revolution will depend on how actors use it.

Within cyberspace, you have this aspect that there might be AI versus AI cyber conflict in the future. Where your offensive cyber tool – your intrusion, your exploit tool – goes head-to-head with your target’s AI-enabled cyber defence tools, which might be intrusion prevention or spam filtering tools that are already AI-enabled. It really depends on how capabilities are used. You will have human creativity but then an AI algorithm makes decisions in ways that humans do not, so that will change some aspects of how offensive cyber activity takes place.

There is debate as to whether this is a cyber attack or information warfare, but I think deep fakes would be an example of a technology or tool that is already being used, falsifying information, that has revolutionised information warfare because of the scale and the nature of the internet today. So how far AI revolutionises offensive cyber will depend not only on its use but also a complex set of interconnections between AI, big data, online connectedness and digital reliance that will come together to change the way that conflict takes place online.

That is a complicated, long answer to say: it depends, but AI definitely does have the potential to revolutionise offensive cyber.

ES: No, thank you – I appreciate that revolutionary is a bit of a loaded term.

AE: Yes, there is a lot of hyperbole when you talk about AI in warfare. But through my doctoral research, every industry practitioner and policy-maker that I have spoken to has agreed that it is a game-changer. Whether or not you agree with the hype, it changes the rules of the game because the speed completely changes and the nature of an attack may completely change. So you definitely cannot say that the power of big data and the power of AI will not change things.

ES: This next question is from Dr Daniel Moore, who I spoke to last week for part two of this series. He was wondering if you think that AI will significantly alter the balance between offence and defence in cyberspace?

AE: I am going to disappoint Danny and say: we do not know yet. We do already see, of course, this interesting balance that states are choosing when they pick their own defence versus offence postures. And I think it is really important to note here that AI is just one tool in the arsenal for a team that is tasked with offensive cyber capabilities. At this point, I do not predict it making a huge difference.

At least when we talk about state-coordinated offensive cyber – sophisticated attacks, taking down adversaries or against critical national infrastructure, for example – they require such sophisticated, niche tools that the automation capabilities provided by AI are unlikely to offer any cutting-edge advantage there. So that depends. AI cyber defence tools streamline a huge amount of activity, whether that is picking out abnormal activities in your network or your logs, that eliminates a huge amount of manual analysis that cyber defence analysts might have to do and gives them more time for meaningful analysis.

AI speeds up and streamlines activity on both the offensive and defensive side, so I think it simply fits into the wider policy discussions for a state. It is one aspect but not the determining aspect, at the moment anyway or in the near future.

ES: And I guess the blurring of the lines between offence and defence in some cyber postures complicates the issue a little?

 AE: Yes, especially when you look at the US and the way they define persistent engagement and defending forward. It is interesting as to where different states will draw their own lines on reaching outside their networks to take down the infrastructure of someone they know is attacking them – offensive activity for defensive purposes. So I think the policy question is much bigger than AI.

ES: Thinking more geopolitically, the UK’s Integrated Review was heavy on science and new technologies and other countries are putting a lot of resources into AI as well. There seems to be some element of a security dilemma here, but would you go so far as to say that we are seeing the start of a nascent AI arms race – what is your view of that framing?

AE: I think to an extent, yes, we do see aspects of a nascent AI arms race. But it is across all sectors, which comes back to AI as a dual-use technology. The Microsoft AI capability that we use now to chat with friends is also being used by NATO command structures and other military structures in command and control infrastructure, albeit in a slightly different form.

Because cutting-edge AI is being developed by private companies, which have the access and resources to do this, it is not like there is this huge arsenal of inherently weaponised AI tools. On the flip side, AI as a dual-use technology means that everything can be weaponised or gamed with enough capability. So it is a very messy landscape.

There have been large debates around autonomous systems in conflict generally, like drones, and I think there is an extent to which we can apply this to cyberspace too. While there is this security dilemma aspect, it is not in any states’ interests to escalate into full-blown warfare that cannot be deescalated and that threatens their citizens, so tools and capabilities should be used carefully.

Now there is a limit to how much you can apply this to cyberspace because of its invisible nature, the lack of transparency and a completely different deterrence structure. But there is an argument that states will show restraint in weaponizing AI where it is not in their interest. You see this conversation taking place, for example, around lethal autonomous weapons at the United Nations Group of Governmental Experts, where it is generally considered that taking the human out of the loop is highly undesirable. But it is complicated and early days.

Looking at the UK, my research has shown that there is pressure to develop AI capabilities in this space and there are perceptions of an AI arms race across the private sector, which is who I spoke to. And there is this awareness that AI investment must happen, in a large part because of anticipated behaviour of adversary states – the idea that other states do not have the same ethical or legal constraints when it comes to offensive cyber or the use of military AI, which is what my PhD thesis focuses on. The only preventative answer to stop this security mechanism building up into an AI arms race seems to be some kind of consensus mechanism, whereby like-minded states agree not to weaponize AI in this way. That is why my research has taken me to NATO, to look in the military context at what kinds of norms can be developed and whether there is a role for international agreement in this way.

If I had to summarise that argument into one or two sentences: there are trends suggesting that there is an AI arms race which is bigger than conflict, bigger than the military and bigger than cyber. So you have to rely on the security interests of the states themselves not to escalate and to potentially form alliance agreements to prevent escalation.

Part II of this interview will be published tomorrow on Friday 18th June 2021.