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Resource-Induced Conflicts, Part III: To Frack or Not To Frack?

September 19, 2016 by Sourojeet Chakraborty

By: Sourojeet Chakraborty

rig_wind_river

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness” – Charles Dickens, 1859

Future generations might find the above Dickens quote apt for describing the present times. Following the recent crash in oil prices, augmented by tensions in the Middle East, it is clear that we must seek alternative energy sources to satisfy our growing energy demands. Over the past years, fracking, or hydraulic fracturing has gained increasing attention, both for its pros and cons, and therefore deserves an in-depth consideration of its techno-economic feasibility and long-term environmental sustainability. For despite the awareness and advances in alternative fuel technology, it is evident that the world is not going to shift gears until all fossil fuels have run out.

Fracking is a shale-gas extraction technique from residual wells via controlled pressurized stimulation. It entails drilling into and subsequently flooding the rock formation, so as to extract residual shale gas from previously used wells. The process employs the high pressure injection of proppant loaded water to the wellbores in order to create cracks in the rock-microstructure from which fracked gas will flow upon removal of the pressure. Fracking was first commercially started in 1950, in the wake of successful experimental trials by Halliburton in 1947.[1] Today, an estimated 3.2 million of these “frack jobs” have been performed globally, with over 2.3 million in the United States alone. This figure is expected to rise in the coming years, given the progressive increase in the use of liquefied natural gas. By 2030, roughly 25% of the 678 quadrillion British Thermal Units (BTU) of the energy demand is predicted to be met by NG. Desmond King, president of the Chevron Oronite Co. LLC, emphasises that the technology holds promise if implemented properly. In a report published by Jeff D. Colgan of the Harvard Kennedy School[2], if fracking continues to accelerate and gets adopted more frequently, then North America could achieve energy independence in the context of low or zero net energy imports in the next decade. King however agrees that so long as the oil market remains integrated globally, shale consumption is unlikely to cause any major impact on global energy consumption trends. The fracking revolution is hence, unlikely to reduce oil-related threats to international security. Having established the former, oil reserves are grossly exaggerated, thus the development, testing and commercialisation of fracking technologies is urgently needed.

Fracking has become a highly controversial issue in many countries because of the various associated operational hazards and environmental repercussions. While its proponents put forth the argument of accessing potential hydrocarbon reserves, the major process drawback is chronic groundwater contamination, which finds its way into the hydrological cycle and integrates with the associated fluxes of evaporation, evapotranspiration and terrestrial runoff. Extensive noise production is another potentially negative effect. So too are earthquakes. These are commonly triggered due to the initiation of seismic activity, which results from drilling in critical locations that tend to disrupt otherwise normal movements in geological plates, or what is commonly known as a fault-trigger. Controversies on fracking began after a rather striking report published by the Guardian in 2013.[3] The article spoke specifically about families in north Texas who claimed to have suffered bad health upon commencement of drilling operations in areas near to the Barnett Shale in Texas. Residents near such rigs have repeatedly suffered from nosebleeds, nausea, headaches and an all-pervasive smell of acrid chemicals. Not to mention the noise, the pollution and the constant fumes of toxins that were emitted.

A major concern of the process is the unrestricted usage of proppant-flooded water. Proppants are solid additives, primarily sand or man-made ceramic structures and chemical additives (acids, chlorides, citric acid, guar gum, isopropanol etc.) that, upon flooding, will increase the cracks in the rock microstructure and allow the shale gas to escape from the rock’s interior. Upon removal of the pressure, the sand particles prevent the cracks from closing, thereby creating a massive diffusion corridor that allows the gas to escape from within the rock’s interior and flow to the surface via the previously drilled channel. This process is repeated multiple times along the entire horizontal section of the wall, which may typically extend for over several miles. The recovered fracturing fluid is then recycled in other fracking operations and is then finally disposed of in abandoned wells, following environmental and legislative protocols. Even a preliminary dose response assessment of the toxic fracking water demonstrates an abnormally high CDI (chronic daily intake) and an alarmingly high Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk. Likewise, such waters demonstrate elevated values of the Bio-concentration Factor, which, in lentic ecosystems, is likely to initiate eutrophication.[4] With every successful operation where a fracking liquid gets employed iteratively, the toxicity is seen to increase exponentially. The main problems arising from these high levels of toxicity are that firstly, most effluent treatment units and activated sludge treatment units are unable to process feed with such high concentration of minerals and chemicals. Secondly, many wells are not been capped properly post extraction and have thus led to numerous ‘fugitive emissions’ of these toxic fluids. What is more, following a series of earthquakes in Dallas, Texas – which have occurred ever since ExxonMobil started shale explorations in the area – detailed investigations have traced the use of proponent loaded water as the primary casual mechanism. Accordingly, the injection and re-injection of the toxic fluid even has the potential to trigger earthquakes in areas that have a minor earthquake history.

While it is true that fracking is likely to continue until this form of extraction becomes obsolete, it is also true that it is unlikely to gain global dominance until oil wells run dry. At present, 15 million Americans live within a mile from an oil or gas well, with 6 million in Texas alone.[5] The alarming factor is that companies are not legally obligated to disclose the chemicals they use in the fracking fluid, although in recent years, there have been platforms established where companies may voluntarily choose to disclose such information. It is self-evident that unless legislative regulations are tightened, a sizeable proportion of the industry will stand to benefit from this constitutional ambivalence. A classic example would be Haliburton and BP, which engaged in a major game of shifting blame when BP’s Macondo oil-rig blew up in 2010, the cause being the use of inferior grade cement to construct the well.[6]

In a major move, the city of New York banned all fracking-based activities in 2014 after a state review found “too many red flags” for the extraction process.[7] The decision was immediately criticized by the Natural Gas Alliance, which represents the independent drilling firms; but actively welcomed by actor and fracking opponent Mark Ruffalo, who gave the cause a public face. Additionally, Canadian geologist David Hughes, who has worked with the Post Carbon Institute, has conclusively demonstrated that well productivities decrease by up to 85% within three years – this calls into question whether such an energy extraction pathway is at all feasible.[8] Opposition to the process has also spread across the Atlantic. In Salah, Algeria local inhabitants took to anti-fracking protests when Halliburton tested the region for fracking in March 2015, with 40 participants reported to have been according to Le Monde.[9] But such resource-induced uprisings have existed in Algeria since 2011, when Sonatrach, a government venture, decided to explore shale options. The major issues raised by local residents are fears of subsequent displacement and the adverse effects that shale extraction could have on the Saharan ecosystem. Halliburton, as well as the Algerian government, have categorically remained mute on these issues.[10] Similar conflicts of interest between energy corporations and societies have emerged in the UK when Total announced its intention to explore shale gas possibilities. the British government has proposed a strategy whereby those residents affected by fracking receive some of the proceeds as compensation, environmentalists have rejected such attempts of ‘bribery’ and have remained firm on their opposition. Despite this, having got government approval, drilling and shale explorations are set to begin in North Yorkshire. However, as resident and activist Donna Hume of Friends of the Earth puts it, legal action is being considered to challenge the Yorkshire decision.[11]

To summarize: Hydraulic fracturing holds promise, and it can certainly satisfy the world’s energy requirement in the foreseeable future. What holds even greater promise is that we are currently just talking about the proven unconventional reserves – there are even more unproven reserves that need proper exploration. However, in order to lessen the detrimental health and environmental effects associated with shale exploration, it is vital that the industry invest in developing a more techno-economically feasible, environmentally friendly, and sustainable solution. This is not to say that such a transformation will be easy. Indeed, there are definitely problems and challenges that must be overcome before the process turns benign on all the conventional checkpoints. However, in the long-run, such a technological paradigm shift is inevitable. Essentially then, the issue boils down to a trade-off between addressing our ever increasing energy needs and the long-term sustenance of our race. Such a crucial balancing and scale-up requires qualified, capable leaders who are not only able to transcend from mere engineering knowledge to demand forecasting, but can also envision the energetics of their next generation, if not more.

 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: The author wishes to thank Desmond King from Chevron and Dr. Michaël Bikard from the London Business School for their valuable insights.

 

 

Sourojeet is a master’s graduate in chemical engineering, from Imperial College London and a research assistant in strategy at the London Business School. He is also an Inclusive and Social Business certificate recipient from HEC Paris. His broad interests include energy, strategy and organisational behaviour. Twitter: @sourojeet

 

 

 

Notes:

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraulic_fracturing

[2] Jeff D. Colgan (2013), ‘Oil, Conflict and US National Interests’, available at <http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/23517/oil_conflict_and_us_national_interests.html>

[3] Suzanne Goldenberg (2013), ‘Fracking Hell: What it’s really like to live next to a shale gas well’, available at <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/14/fracking-hell-live-next-shale-gas-well-texas-us

[4] A form of water pollution arising from an over enrichment in chemical nutrients

[5] Suzanne Goldenberg (2013), ‘Fracking Hell: What it’s really like to live next to a shale gas well’, available at <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/14/fracking-hell-live-next-shale-gas-well-texas-us

[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_explosion

[7] Matt Smith (2014), ‘New York State Just Banned Natural Gas Fracking’, available at

<https://news.vice.com/article/new-york-state-just-banned-natural-gas-fracking>

[8] http://www.postcarbon.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Drilling-Deeper_FULL.pdf

[9] Pierre Longeray (2015), ‘Violence Flares Over Halliburton’s Fracking Tests In Algeria’, available at <https://news.vice.com/article/violence-flares-over-halliburtons-fracking-tests-in-algeria>

[10] Pierre Longeray (2015), ‘Protests Against Fracking in the Sahara Desert Are Spreading in Algeria, available at <https://news.vice.com/article/protests-against-fracking-in-the-sahara-desert-are-spreading-in-algeria>

[11] John Moylan (2016), ‘Fracking go-ahead. What happens next?’ , available at <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36399856>

Image Source: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraulic_Fracturing (Accessed 19/09/2016)

Filed Under: Blog Article Tagged With: Economic Incentives, Environment, feature, fracking, Resource Conflicts

Resource-Induced Conflicts: Introduction to the Series

September 12, 2016 by Annabelle Vuille

By: Annabelle Vuille

istock_000020867570large

 

In 2001, Michael T. Klare published his ground breaking work Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict. In it, he argued that humanity’s growing dependence on a finite supply of critical resources – from oil and minerals, to water and land – at a time when demand for such resources was expected to soar, meant that our future would increasingly be characterised by what he termed ‘resource conflicts’; that is, armed conflicts or civil strife revolving ‘to a significant degree, over the pursuit or possession of critical materials.’[1] Today, this analysis seems prescient.

According to the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), at least 40% of all internal conflicts recorded over the past 60 years, including at least 18 violent conflicts since the 1990s have been fuelled by issues relating to the exploitation and control of either scarce or ‘high value’ commodities. With the world population expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050, and the effects of climate change and environmental degradation placing increased pressure on commodity supplies, it is highly likely that the new fault line underlying world politics will be natural resources: who has them, who needs them, and which actors have the necessary means to secure them. While natural resources can foment war both between states – such as the ongoing petroleum clash between the Angolan and Congolese government in the Cabinda region, or the Spratly Islands dispute in the South China Sea – and within states – as is the case in both Iraq and Yemen, where disagreements over resource-wealth sharing have caused ethnic fragmentation and civil strife – it is the latter that will be the focus of this Strife series.

Since the turn of the century, there has been a growing body of literature dealing with the link between intrastate conflict and natural resources. The contentious issue on the matter is whether armed conflicts within a state are linked to an abundance or scarcity of resources, commonly referred to as the ‘resource curse’. Proponents argue that an abundance of natural resources leads to economic underperformance, fuels corruption, and creates socio-political ills that may lead to civil strife. Contrastingly, critics point to other countries such as Norway, Botswana and Chile, as examples of peaceful states possessing significant resource endowments. [2]–[3]  However, although scholars remain divided on the salience of the resource-curse theory, there is common consensus that while resources may not be the sole cause of conflict, stresses related to their exploitation can have a significant impact on civil strife. From inciting initial acts of violence, financing or sustaining conflict by providing the revenues necessary to purchase arms and secure loyalties, to undermining peace building efforts due to concerns over disenfranchisement and loss of income – natural resources can be implicated in all phases of the conflict cycle.[4]

Over the coming weeks, Strife will be featuring a five-part series on the role of natural resources in triggering, escalating, or sustaining violent conflict within states. Jasper Humphreys will start by surveying the theoretical underpinnings and debates surrounding ‘resource wars’, and subsequently offer insights into where and over which resources future violent conflict might ensue. The three subsequent pieces will provide an insight into current cases of ‘resource conflicts’. Sourojeet Chakraborty will discuss the drawbacks of fracking for shale exploration, how these effects have led to public uprisings from the U.S. and the UK to Algeria, and offer an assessment of what energy companies might do to alleviate such tensions. Siri Camilla Rustad and Cyril Obi will take a closer look at petro-violence in the Niger Delta, the evolution and causes of the conflict, and offer insights into why the Amnesty granted to the Niger Delta militants in 2009 ultimately failed. Dr. Charles Schmitz will use the case of Yemen to argue that though linking natural resource scarcity or abundance to conflict has an attractive conceptual simplicity, the roots of conflict are far more complex.  Social relations—economy, politics, social institutions—mediate the relationships between the natural environment and people and bear far more responsibility for scarcity, abundance, and conflict than simple Malthusian equations. Finally, Päivi Lujala will place ‘resource conflicts’ into the context of peacebuilding and discuss the ways in which increased transparency in contract formulation, ownership schemes, and revenue flows may prevent resource-rich states from sliding back into violence.

With soaring global population growth, and the subsequent rise in the demand for resources – from oil and gas, to water and livestock – there is significant potential that the coming decades will experience an intensification of civil strife and conflict over resources. In this five-part series Strife hopes to provide a deeper understanding of the dynamics shaping such conflicts and the means available to states and non-state actors to address their root cause and (hopefully) create a sustainable road to peace.

 

 

Annabelle Vuille is currently based in Switzerland and in her final year of the MA programme in International Relations and Contemporary War at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. Having studied International Business in Rome, she is specifically interested in applying her economic background to the sphere of conflict and security. Her main research interest is the interplay between geopolitics and energy security, particularly in the maritime domain.

 

 

 

Notes:

[1] Klare, Michael (2001), Resource Wars: The Changing Landscape of Global Conflict (New York, United States: Henry Holt), p. 23.

[2] Wright, Gavin and Czelusta, Jesse (2004), ‘Why Economies Slow: The Myth of the Resource Curse’, Challenge, Vol. 47, No. 2, pp. 6-38.; Varisco, Andrea (2010), ‘A Study on the Inter-Relation between Armed Conflict and Natural Resources and its implications for Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding’, Journal of Peace, Conflict and Development, Vol. 15, pp. 38-58.

[3] Michael L. Ross, “The political economy of the Resource Curse”, World Politics 51, no.2 (1999): pp. 297-322 explains the so-called Dutch Disease effect, Indra De Soysa, “The Resource Curse: Are Civil Wars Driven by Rapacity or Paucity?”, in Greed and Grievances: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars, ed. Mats R. Berdal and David M. Malone (Boulder: Lynne Rienner Press, 2000) pp. 113-136 introduces the concept of ‘honey pots’. See also Philippe Le Billon, “The political ecology of war: Natural Resources and Armed Conflicts”, Political Geography, 20 (2001): p. 564.

[4] United Nations Environment Programme (2009), From Conflict to Peacebuilding: The Role of Natural Resources and the Environment (Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environment Programme).

Image Source: http://tantec.no/TantecNorgeAS/produkter/iptv/content/photogallery_8925791b-a11d-4323-8228-c5e02616d6f4/images/1353664924198/istock_000020867570large.jpg

Filed Under: Blog Article Tagged With: feature, fracking, Niger Delta, Oil, Resource conflict, Strife series

Until the last drop (…of oil)

December 2, 2014 by Strife Staff

By Eugenio Lilli:

Photo: Carsten ten Brink (creative commons)
Photo: Carsten ten Brink (creative commons)

Eight percent: that is how much the price of oil fell after OPEC’s decision last Thursday to maintain its oil output unaltered. This sharp drop was only the latest development in a trend that has seen oil prices on the world market tumble by nearly 40 percent since mid-June. At one point, the international crude benchmark even traded below $70 a barrel, the lowest since May 2010.

The current situation is the result of a combination of factors. On the one hand, a slowdown in the Chinese and European economies has led to a decrease in demand for oil. On the other hand, the so-called “fracking revolution” in the United States, added to an ahead-of-target OPEC production, has generated an increase in oil supply.

Despite a clear situation of overproduction, and repeated calls for a cut, OPEC, and especially Saudi Arabia, decided to keep its production ceiling unchanged. Given the undeniable strategic importance of oil for modern economies, such a decision is likely to have far-reaching implications. Here, we limit our discussion to the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States: a time-honored relationship that has come under pressure recently due to openly divergent opinions over events like the Arab Awakening and US-Iranian nuclear negotiations.

Experts have given several interpretations of Saudi Arabia’s decision to convince OPEC to adopt a policy that contributes to the ongoing fall in oil prices. Two of these are particularly worth noting.

The first interpretation depicts Saudi Arabia’s decision as being in line with US interests in the region. According to this view, Saudi policy to keep the price of oil low is part of a wider strategy to help the United States put meaningful economic pressure on Russia. In fact, according to the Financial Times, Russia needs to sell oil at a price of at least $110 a barrel to guarantee stability to its economy and financial system. An oil price at $70 a barrel therefore has the potential to further slow Russia’s embattled economy, since around half of the country’s annual budget revenue comes from oil and gas exports.

The current decline in oil prices has also affected the value of the Russian currency – the ruble. Since the beginning of the year, the ruble has weakened by 34% against the US dollar. A weak ruble makes it harder for Russian companies – including the energy giant Rosneft – to pay the interest on their foreign debts. In other words, by keeping oil prices low Saudi Arabia is actively contributing to the Obama administration’s effort to rein in a recalcitrant Russia.

A second interpretation takes the opposite view and describes Saudi Arabia’s decision as a foreign policy tool to test US shale production. According to this interpretation, a policy of cheap oil is primarily aimed at challenging US shale operators and driving out the highest-cost producers. In fact, the break-even price required for shale oil developments in the United States ranges between $40 and $115 a barrel. A Saudi strategy for a long period of low prices may therefore push many US producers out of the market and slow down the development of these new energy sources. In other words, Saudi Arabia may be assertively resisting the US’ steady rise to being the world’s top oil producer.

Certainly, the above interpretations are not mutually exclusive. In fact, the Saudis could be cooperating with the Obama administration against Putin while, at the same time, they could be challenging the United States for supremacy in the global oil market. However, a Saudi policy mainly based on a rationale of “cooperation” instead of one of “competition” could be a revealing sign of where the US-Saudi relationship is heading.


 

Eugenio Lilli is a PhD Candidate at the Defence Studies Department, King’s College London. His research focuses on US foreign policy toward the Greater Middle East, in particular on the Obama administration’s response to the Arab Awakening. Eugenio is also the founding chairperson of the King’s College London US Foreign Policy Research Group. You can follow him on Twitter @EugenioLilli

Filed Under: Blog Article Tagged With: crude, fracking, Oil, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, United States, us

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