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Can a Tropical Bird Take the Jungles of Colombia out of the ‘Conflict Trap’?

December 16, 2020 by Andrés Felipe Gómez González

by Andrés Felipe Gómez González

The guianan cock-of-the-rock, endemic to the tropical rainforests of northern South America, abounds in the jungles of Guaviare. (Image credit: Almir Cândido de Almeida)

Well, not only the bird. A pink river, mysterious parietal paintings, and bizarre rock formations may also hold the key towards establishing peace in one of the most conflict-ridden areas of Colombia. In recent years, the people of northern Guaviare – ‘the door’ to the Amazon jungle in Southern Colombia – realised that these treasures, hidden deep in the jungle, can provide a better living than growing coca. However, this story is not just about a group of farmers turning their back on violence-fuelling illicit trade to embrace an alternative source of income; it is also a story of how to re-imagine a territory. Small-scale solutions lead the way to peaceful coexistence in conflict-affected areas.

The drug trade continues as one of the main sources of funding of the illegal armed groups in Colombia. Some regions have even seen an increase in production after the demobilisation of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC)—Colombia’s biggest guerrilla group and the subsequent emergence of fragmented armed groups led by ex FARC warlords. This trend reinforces the idea that Colombia has fallen into what Collier & Sambanis coined as the ´conflict trap´ in their article ‘Understanding Civil War: A New Agenda’ (2002), a situation in which war tends to prolong itself by aggravating the political and economic conditions that caused the war. But Guaviare -once Colombia’s main coca producer region- tells a different story as the hectares with coca continues to drop and its inhabitants leave violence behind. Why is this happening? Although this article cannot cover all the possible explanations, it focuses on the lessons that the story of these farmers provides to policymakers looking at how to break the ‘conflict trap’ in other cases.

A window of opportunity in a land of trouble

Originally inhabited by the pre-Columbian Nukak indigenous group, Guaviare was one of the regions colonised during the Amazon rubber boom of the 1910s and 1940s. Many families migrated from the centre of the country, seeking fast revenue and adventure. Nevertheless, the ‘rubber fever’ ended quickly, leaving the new inhabitants of Guaviare alone in an immense rainforest difficult to conquer. A new era of colonisation came in the late XX Century with the boom of cocaine. The population of Guaviare grew exponentially as colonisers migrated from other impoverished regions attracted by the coca revenues.  Following the new wave of colonisers, this territory started growing almost thirty thousand hectares of coca per year.

Cave paintings of ‘Cerro Azul’ (Image credit: Author’s own, A.G.)

Without the strong presence of the State, the region fell into the hands of drug traffickers and the FARC guerrilla group. Under their presence, growing coca was not only about earning revenue but also a matter of survival. Those who refused to risked being hunted down by the new rulers of the territory. New generations grew up having to choose between growing coca – like their parents – or joining the FARC. According to Colombia’s Victims Unit, the conflict in Guaviare has had more than 93,000 victims since 1985, with more than 83,000 displaced and 6,612 dead. In just a couple of decades, the region had fallen into what Collier & Sambanis call the ´conflict trap´ as the political and economic outcomes of the conflict were aggravating it.

The river ‘Caño Sabana’ (Image credit: Author’s own, A.G.)

Several government-led efforts to break the relationship between coca and the communities failed, as forced eradication carried out by the Army caused serious collateral damage and aerial aspersion of glyphosate was suspended by a judicial order due to the potential risk on the health of the inhabitants. Additionally, the geographical location of Guaviare imposed legal, environmental, and economic restraints on the viability of other crops to replace coca. None of these crops could match the level of profit that coca provided. The introduction of cattle to the region has reduced the farmers’ dependence on coca by generating a decent source of income, but deforestation has caused more droughts and a loss of biodiversity that now threatens the stable income flow of the cattle-ranchers.

Fortunately, the signing of the peace treaty with FARC in 2016 opened new opportunities for Guaviare. The demobilisation of more than five hundred guerrilla fighters, as well as the government’s initiatives for the collective elaboration of local development plans, momentarily allowed the people of Guaviare to re-think their territory in ways they have not done before. Suddenly, the lush jungles that for decades hid the laboratories that produced cocaine, were seen as potential ecotourist attractions. Guaviare, which had been tagged as a ‘no go red zone,’ was now attracting birdwatchers, in the search of the Rupicola rupicola (the bird pictured above), and backpackers. Between 2016 and 2019, the arrival of passengers to the airport in Guaviare increased by 247%; and some of the operators of the main tourist attractions reported that the number of visitors had grown by at least ten times over the past few years.

However, not all guerrillas demobilised, and at least 150 men remained in arms in Guaviare when the rest of the FARC demobilised and regrouped into one of the so-called ‘dissident groups’. Since then, they have expanded their control over more territory in the area and continue to traffic drugs.  However, while cocaine production has increased in other Colombian regions under the control of other dissident groups and criminal organisations, the data from Guaviare offers a more optimistic vision as hectares with coca have dropped some fifty-four per cent between 2016 and 2019. This is where this little bird comes into play.

Re-thinking the jungle and the communities

Transitioning from coca to ecotourism has involved a deep paradigm shift for the communities in Guaviare. Most of the inhabitants saw the rainforest as an obstacle to progress, and thousands of hectares were chopped down to plant coca or to introduce cattle. But now, local leaders in Guaviare -particularly in the area of the ´Serranía de la Lindosa´- have taken action to promote more sustainable exploitation of the forests that were once under the control of the FARC. Former coca farmers from communities surrounding the emerging touristic hotspots have created cooperative associations and turned themselves into tourist guides. Their services include taking the tourists to look for the bird, to see the cave paintings, and to take a dip in the river where the plant Macarenia clavigera dyes the water pink. By creating this association, its members have been able to involve their community and assure that everyone benefits from the new trade.

´Don Segundo´ is in the process of turning his coca and cattle farm into an ecological reservation where a 27 metres-tall waterfall is the main tourist attraction. (Image credit: @mateoah)

In a joint effort with Colombian universities and NGOs, local leaders are trying to replicate their success in neighbouring communities. This positive spill-over effect is likely to reduce conflict in the area. It will also have positive implications for local environmental sustainability and reducing greenhouse emissions.  Farmers have learnt that conservation is an essential component of ecotourism, and universities are getting the chance to study the ecology of a previously inaccessible area of rainforest.

The local dissident group’s effort to reclaim the area to grow coca or take control of the booming tourism industry has not prospered: they now face an organised community that is more likely to resist and generate a sustainable income from the forests they used to chop down. For the moment, the efforts of the inhabitants of the ‘Serranía de la Lindosa’ are taking their region on the road towards a more stable peace by breaking with the illegal business that fuelled the worst tragedies of the past. Their enterprise is now creating a more optimistic future for the new generations that, otherwise, would have fallen in the hands of the guerrillas.

Lessons from Guaviare

The positive experience in Guaviare has caught the attention of international donors, think tanks, and journalists in the search for policies that allow Colombia to overcome decades of drug-related violence. Although these changes are still in the early stages, some lessons can be learnt about how to break a ‘conflict trap’, where a region is mired in persistent and entrenched violence:

  1. Local context matters: There is no ‘silver bullet’ in the fight against coca production. The Colombian government has failed to achieve a lasting reduction of hectares of coca through national policies like aerial aspersion. This case shows that the identification of small-scale opportunities in a local area in Northern Guaviare and the presence of potential ecotourist biodiverse hotspots- can be more successful in generating alternative income for farmers linked with coca production. Policymakers who ignore the local context will fail to implement the economic and political measures appropriate for that community and will miss the opportunity to break the ‘conflict trap’.
  2. Communities should be at the centre of the solution: While policymakers arriving from Bogota had failed to impose centrally designed crop substitution plans and convince farmers to drop out from coca cultivation, the direct relationship of local leaders with their communities has been a fundamental motivator of change. Efforts to eradicate coca that incorporate a bottom-up building perspective may be more successful.
  3. Sustainability as a key element: Previous efforts to substitute coca that only considered short-term monetary incentives (e.g., introducing crops that generate as much revenue to the farmers) were implicated in environmental damage. Although the current pandemic has caused tourist numbers to plummet temporarily, it is likely that ecotourism plans in Guaviare will be longer-lasting and generate a more stable income for former coca farmers than other non-sustainable businesses.

While the demobilisation of the FARC has not ended the drug trade or armed violence in Colombia, small experiences like this one in Guaviare offer a glimmer of hope. Local, small-scale initiatives such as in Guaviare, are bringing peace to communities that once suffered the burden of war. They are breaking the perverse incentives that fuelled conflict in their territories. However, the story is not over yet. The successful implementation of these farmers’ plans still requires overcoming several challenges that cannot be fully covered here. Additionally, this initiative by no means tackles all the causes of the Colombian armed conflict, some of which will require different types of interventions. However, it already offers valuable lessons for those concerned in breaking the ‘conflict trap’ in historically neglected territories.


Andrés Gómez, a PG student at King’s College London is currently reading for his MA in International Conflict Studies.

Filed Under: Blog Article, Feature Tagged With: Amazon Forest, Andrés Felipe Gómez González, colombia, conflict, drugs, Jungle, Nature

After the revolution: Kiev’s future role in the Eurasian heroin trade

February 28, 2014 by Strife Staff

By Calum Murray:

Injecting_heroin
‘Injecting Heroine’
(photo by Juan Manuel Garcia, ‘a hundred visions and revisions’)

Whilst it would be a fool’s errand to forecast success in the face of grave uncertainty, it seems at last that the Ukrainian opposition is making headway. Quite how a ‘victory’ could manifest itself, however, remains unclear. As Russia’s influence remains polarised between East and West Ukraine, it even remains possible that the country could fragment after the early election is contested.

Add to this the financial incentives and political posturing from both Moscow and Brussels and it becomes clear that this is about far more than just national self-determination. Moscow in particular has made its position clear, conducting military drills near the Ukrainian border and placing fighter squadrons on combat alert.  As we all no doubt realise, the result of this revolution will ultimately set the frontiers of the European Union with Vladimir Putin’s proposed Eurasian Union.

However, in the scramble to analyse the political and strategic consequences and significance of what Hillary Clinton suggested will be ‘the new USSR’, academics and commentators alike have been slow to acknowledge the hidden danger that lies between these two supranational unions. After the revolution, Kiev could well find itself on the front line of Europe’s defence against a new wave of heroin trafficking.

Europe’s biggest source of heroin is Afghanistan, in part because it holds a 65% share in global opium cultivation, but also because its rivals in Burma (Myanmar), Laos and Mexico are too small to supply significantly beyond their own regional markets. However, routes from Afghanistan to the EU are both diverse and flexible. With three major arteries running south through Africa (the ‘Southern Route’), west through Turkey and the Balkans (the ‘Balkan Route’) and north through the Commonwealth of Independent States (the ‘Northern Route’), heroin can easily find its way to the European market.

Having been the primary route for decades, the Balkan route has been increasingly choked through counter-narcotics operations in Turkey and Iran, which has led to a substantial proliferation of heroin smuggling along the Southern route via Africa. The Northern route, by contrast, has remained relatively stable, supplying a regional Russian market.

However, the Northern Route may be set to be flooded. The reason is simple: economic unions facilitate trade of all kinds. The Schengen Agreement itself facilitates drug trafficking through Europe by removing border controls, and this is likely to proliferate on a massive scale. The proposed Eurasian Economic Area would build upon the existing Customs Union between Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan to include Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan; thereby providing just two border controls between Afghanistan and the EU. Billed for 2016, this arrangement could dramatically increase opiate flows through Central Asia and Russia to Europe in just two years’ time.

Reports from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) have demonstrated yearly that drug interceptions amongst the Central Asian Republics are systematically compromised by state corruption and geographical constraints, particularly in Tajikistan. Coupled with the prevalence of Russian organised crime in existing heroin trafficking and the level of Russian state corruption, it would seem naïve to trust an infant Eurasian Union to be able to adequately control heroin flows through the region.

As such, the Northern Route may well emerge as a viable alternative to the long and costly Southern Route, whose recent rise has attracted the attention and reaction of the international community. Just as the squeeze on the Balkan Route fed the Southern Route, international efforts to seize drug shipments from West Africa and the Maghreb could see more Afghan heroin leave through the northern border with Tajikistan with greater frequency.

Such a situation would undoubtedly place Ukraine, or perhaps a new West Ukraine, on the front line of European counter-narcotics. With over 1,150km of borders with EU member states, Ukraine provides an excellent entry point to the European market, especially through its ability to link up with existing heroin trafficking routes through Romania and the Balkans. Additionally, its sheer size and relatively porous borders with Russia have already led to it being described somewhat hyperbolically as ‘the centre of the East-West drug trade’, whilst its comparative proximity to Central Europe would give it the edge against an EU-bound trade via Belarus.

But could Kiev control such a flow? It’s not possible to say with precision, but the outlook seems bleak. Not only are drug traffickers endlessly creative in methods to circumvent law enforcement, but Ukraine is structurally and situationally limited. Even before the revolution, the US Overseas Security Advisory Council noted that ‘limited budget [sic] resources hamper Ukraine’s ability to effectively counter this threat’ and that ‘coordination between law enforcement agencies responsible for counter-narcotics continues to be stilted due to regulatory and jurisdictional constraints’. After the revolution, either Ukraine’s new parliament or the remnants of Yanukovych’s administration will almost certainly be preoccupied with entrenching their respective regimes, putting state restructuring ahead of counter-narcotics.

Europe’s best hope, therefore, remains to support Ukraine’s pro-European movement in a bid to increase European involvement in Ukrainian policing. Europol established intelligence sharing with Ukrainian authorities in 2009, but drawing Ukraine into the EU sphere of influence would enable greater direct technical, financial and operational support from EU partners. What is certain is that drug security across Europe depends greatly on how quickly the EU can respond to this impending threat and establish effective counter-narcotics partners on its eastern frontiers.

Calum Murray is an MA student in the War Studies Department and is currently collecting open-source intelligence on drug trafficking in the EU.

_____________________________

NOTES
[1] Ukraine Crime and Safety Report, OSAC, 21st January 2012.

Filed Under: Blog Article Tagged With: drug trafficking, drugs, EU, Russia, Ukraine

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