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Strife Series on Counterterrorism and Human Rights, Part IV – Balances, trade-offs and divisions of labour in the strategy of countering terrorism

January 25, 2017 by Dr Samir Puri

By: Samir Puri

Perhaps a division of labour will arise, in which the credible agents of countering violent extremism will be within society itself

Balance. It takes just one word to convey the strategic essence of a national effort against terrorism. Trade-offs are inherent in its implementation. Policy responses to terrorism rest on tough judgement calls. One such dilemma is that of potential intrusion into privacy in order to boost the reach of security agencies. This debate has been indelibly shaped by the coincidence of 9/11 occurring at the dawn of the information revolution. The age of mass casualty suicide terrorism and the age of massive data arrived in quick succession. Their juxtaposing has indelibly shaped 21st-century counterterrorism debates.

Contrastingly, the dilemma of human rights infractions occurring in the pursuit of security has perhaps more continuity with the past. Amartya Sen pointed out the contrast between ‘national security’ and ‘human security’. The security interests of people are not necessarily always synonymous with that of the state. The UN declaration of human rights, adopted in 1948, in which “everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of person”, remains a vital coda to the horrors of the wars that it followed. Its relevance to the age of mass casualty terrorist attacks is ground that is being explored with every passing day.

The tension is relatively straightforward to explain. The ‘softer’ responses to terrorism that, for example, reassure alienated populations to reduce their vulnerability to recruitment by terrorists, unfold concurrently with ‘harder’ security responses against the terrorists themselves. This juxtaposition is inescapable. As is the friction, incoherence and provocation that follows its wake.

Phillip Bobbitt, in Terror and Consent: The Wars for the Twenty-First Century, contends that the relationship between law and strategy had to adapt to the unique exigencies of the modern terror threat. Bobbitt takes it seriously that: “the objective of these wars is not the conquest of territory or the silencing of any particular ideology but rather to secure the environment necessary for states of consent and to make it impossible for our enemies to impose or induce states of terror”.

Counterterrorism (CT) is the basis of the response. In an age in which terrorism is so often aimed at soft civilian targets, whether in the Paris attacks of November 2015, or the New Year’s Day massacre in Istanbul, stopping an attack that is already underway often means that it is already too late. Intelligence-led investigative efforts by the security forces must try to pre-empt the plotters and conspirators before their attack plans reach fruition. This is an incredibly difficult art to achieve with consistency.

But it is vital to get right, both for human security and for privacy. Imagine the horrors facing a country that experiences a brace of mass casualty terror attacks: suicide bombers and marauding gun attacks, one after the other, striking several cities over the course of days. The urgency of the security imperative to respond to murder on such a scale could tip the balance towards becoming a police state.

Indeed, Orwell’s ‘1984’ retains its relevance in the modern age of terrorism precisely for painting its vivid picture of a dystopian police state. Absolute security requires reaching into the minds of citizens. Nobody would want the thought crimes, the torture and the mass imprisonment that might accompany such an expansive programme to root out of enemies of the state.

The balance to be struck is, therefore, the critical matter. It is also highly subjective, given that it is dependent on the nature and severity of the threat that a country faces, as well as its legal and humanitarian norms. Turkey is a case in point. Over the course of 2016, Turkey’s government has – unwisely perhaps – waged war against the Islamic State (IS) while renewing its war with the Kurdish Workers Party (PPK). In attack after attack, IS has tended to strike civilian targets, while attacks claimed by the PKK affiliate TAK have often struck the security forces. And, after a failed coup by disgruntled members of the state apparatus, the government has clamped down on the multitude of threats it faces with an uncompromising response involving mass arrest, detention and allegedly torture.

The tendency towards overreaction is inherently tied to the human instinct for revenge, as well as a succumbing to fear. These tendencies are part of the human condition and, as result, contribute to political realities. What unfolds in one country can be unfathomable to even its closest allies. Guantanamo Bay, in which terrorist suspects are interred within the confines of America’s Cuban naval base, is a testament to the loss of legitimacy that flows from detaching the immediacy of security objectives from law.  Set up in the haze of outrage that followed 9/11, now former US President Obama has failed to close the facility. In a worrying portent, Turkey incarcerated PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan on a prison island in the Mamara Sea in 1999 – and there he still remains today. The UN declaration on human rights implores that: “all are entitled without any discrimination to equal protection of the law”. What to do with captured terrorists, actual or suspected, remains a burning issue.

Respect of human rights is intrinsic to the response to terrorism. CT should always be the preserve of the government. On the spectrum of responses to terrorism, CT denotes the most securitized and invasive. Pursuit, arrest or – in extremis – forceful action to restrain or injure, ought to be directed only at those who are mounting terrorist attacks. Ought is the relevant word here. Mistakes and miscalibration can occur as the security forces contend with plotters and attackers who prepare their attacks in secret. Every mistake can add fuel to the terrorist cause by eroding human dignity.

Countering violent extremism (CVE), called preventing violent extremism by the UN, starts from the other end of the response spectrum. It is aimed at dissuading those who might be vulnerable to the attraction of extremist rhetoric from setting down a path that could lead to terrorist violence. Perhaps a division of labour will arise, in which the really credible agents of CVE will be within society itself. Not to police itself, nor for people to spy on each other, but for the people of the polity to exercise the very courageous restraint expected from the security forces, and to reject the attitudinal pulls of extremist ideologies. Civil society organisations may well be the more credible transmitters of the societal response to terrorism than governments. Such is one possible division of labour.

To think seriously about responding to terrorism is to reject absolute positions. To argue that democratic ideals are sacrosanct in all instances is to ignore the complexity of the security effort required to disrupt terrorist plots. Conversely, to argue for an unfettered security response is to ignore how delicate the ideals of democratic state and society are. And there the debate sits; along a scale that awkwardly tips first in one direction and then in the other, reflecting a perpetual and irresolvable tension.


Dr Samir Puri is a lecturer in International Relations at King’s College London. He has researched and written extensively on counterterrorism and counterinsurgency, international security, as well as diplomacy and peace processes. His most recent book is called Fighting and Negotiating with Armed Groups: the Difficulty of Securing Strategic Outcomes.


Image source: https://www.pexels.com/photo/people-walking-on-gray-pavement-42384/

Filed Under: Blog Article Tagged With: counterterrorism, feature, Strife series

Strife Series on Counterterrorism and Human Rights, Part II – Divergent counterterrorism strategies in France and the UK

January 19, 2017 by Felix Manig

By: Felix Manig

Parisians unfurled American and French flags at a rainy memorial ceremony where two towers read in French and English respectively, "Les Français n'oublieront jamais--The French will never forget." (Getty image)
Parisians unfurled American and French flags at a rainy memorial ceremony where two towers read in French and English respectively, “Les Français n’oublieront jamais–The French will never forget.” (Getty image)

The UK Foreign Office currently rates 47 countries around the world as highly likely targets for Islamist terrorist attacks. While this threat spans over much of the Middle East and North Africa, it also extends to Western countries such as the United Kingdom and France. While the threat of terrorism in the Middle East is both quantitatively and qualitatively different than in the West, Western European states today are generally confronted with similar risks and face equal likelihoods of violent terrorist incidents. Yet, despite similar threat levels and a comparable threat perception emanating from the public, states such as the United Kingdom and France have developed starkly contrasting domestic counterterrorism legislation and practices. The divergent approaches between these countries are best explained by highlighting the different institutional characteristics of their respective security agencies and the normative context in which they operate.

In reaction to the 9/11 attacks, Western governments such as in the UK and France made extraordinary changes in their counterterrorism legislation to enable the gathering of court-admissible evidence at the early stages of investigations. By doing so, they embraced a preventive logic of counterterrorism and moved away from solely responding to similar attacks. Even before 2001, counterterrorism efforts in France were characterized by a consistent willingness by security agencies to make forceful and extensive operations in response to a threat. Between 2001 and 2010, France deported 129 alleged terrorists who were considered a threat to its national security.[1] Five weeks ago, French lawmakers approved the fifth extension of the country’s state of emergency – which grants special security powers of search and arrest to police and intelligence agencies. In the United Kingdom, only nine individuals were removed during the same period and the approaches used by British authorities have been marked by relative constraint when arresting and prosecuting terrorist suspects.

In his research on counterterrorism and operational routines in Britain and France, Professor Frank Foley found that distinct institutional developments and societal norms in both countries contributed to lasting differences in how each state performs its counterterrorism strategies.[2] Broadly speaking, French security agencies developed early forceful operational routines resulting from a spillover threat from the Islamist insurgency in Algeria in the 1990s. This led its agencies to develop capabilities for large-scale arrests both inside of France and in Algeria or Morocco. A continuous high threat perception and relatively little backlash from civil actors and the media contributed to increased competencies of security agencies over time and strengthened their ability to conduct large-scale raids and arrests on suspects.

Furthermore, France accords special legislations to deal with counterterrorism. For instance, it allows for early cooperation between the judiciary and security agencies through so-called ‘investigating magistrates’. It has established special non-jury courts that encourage a broad interpretation of what counts as terrorist offences through an association law, thus making prosecutions and deportations easier to sentence. Despite such measures, France was affected by several terrorist attacks in the past few years. However, the absence of large-scale criticism against  Hollande’s prolonged state of emergency laws, which according to Human Rights Watch pose ‘excessive and disproportionate restrictions on fundamental freedoms’ complements the notion that security norms have trumped concerns for liberal and human rights values in France.

Unlike France, where the normative consensus focused on securitisation and allowed for extensive counterterrorism strategies, counterterrorism policies and judicial regulations in the UK demonstrate a different picture. Historically, the United Kingdom did not face Islamist terrorist threats prior to the Global War on Terror post 9/11. An example of the different environment in which British counterterrorism operated was the inability of the government under Prime Minister Tony Blair to assure British courts and the public that deportations of alleged terrorists to countries in the Middle East and North Africa – where their life integrity rights could be under threat – would be a legal and acceptable practice.

Moreover, attempts in 2005 to increase the pre-charge detention time for alleged terrorist suspects from 14 to 90 days was met with strong criticism from civil rights NGOs and large sections of the media because it encroached on the suspect’s right to a trial within reasonable time. Subsequently, this bill was voted down. In his research, Foley also contends that British security agencies found themselves in a normative and societal consensus placing a strong emphasis on respect for minority communities, thus making mass arrests of ‘likely suspects’ as in France less acceptable. Furthermore, embedded values such as the principle of political asylum and the right to freedom of speech in British society are likely to have constrained security agencies in their operational approaches. In the UK, prosecutions of suspects are conducted through the ordinary English court system with its standard jury-trial and without major modification of the evidence-testing processes such as in France.

However, it would be far from the truth to depict the UK’s counterterrorism efforts as flawless and perfectly acceptable in the light of their potential effects on rights and liberties. Increased threat perceptions and actual indiscriminate attacks throughout Western Europe linked to the Islamic State or self-radicalised individuals have prompted a strong response by security agencies. The British government continues to expand funding and capabilities for its official counterterrorism strategy, including increased surveillance through the mass acquisition of communications data, and an increase in operations both domestically and abroad certifies this change. While a well-funded and effective counterterrorism strategy is welcome in wake of growing threats to public safety, governments should be careful in maintaining the balance between securitisation and liberty, and between force and the proportionality of its application.


Felix (@felix_manig) is a postgraduate in International Relations at King’s College London. He focuses on conflict resolution strategies, political violence, and human rights. Outside of academia, he is Series Editor at Strife and advocates for human rights defenders across the world at Peace Brigades International.  


Notes:

[1] Foley, Frank. “Reforming Counterterrorism: Institutions and Organizational Routines in Britain and France.” Security Studies 18, no. 3 (September 18, 2009): 435–78. doi:10.1080/09636410903132920.

[2] Foley, Frank. “Countering Terrorism in Britain and France.” Cambridge University Press. Accessed December 25, 2016. http://www.cambridge.org/vn/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/international-relations-and-international-organisations/countering-terrorism-britain-and-france-institutions-norms-and-shadow-past?format=HB&isbn=9781107029699.


Image Source: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/images-solidarity-911-memorials-around-world/338099/


 

 

 

 

Filed Under: Blog Article Tagged With: counterterrorism, feature, Strife series

Strife Series on Counterterrorism and Human Rights, Introduction – Managing a delicate relationship

January 12, 2017 by Felix Manig

By: Felix Manig

‘Balancing liberty and security – counterterrorism poses serious challenges to Justitia’
‘Balancing liberty and security – counterterrorism poses serious challenges to Justitia’

Countering and responding to the kind of terrorism which today plagues much of the Middle East, parts of Asia, and to a lesser extent Western states have become a massive undertaking and prime concern for policy-makers. The security of the individual is a basic human right which governments are entitled to protect; governments are obliged to develop legitimate measures to ensure their citizens’ safety and mitigate the threat emanating from terrorist groups by bringing such perpetrators to justice. While the actions of terrorist violence negate the fundamentals of human rights, it is especially challenging for the states, related institutions and private actors countering and seeking to prevent terrorism, to operate under the rule of law.

However, since the launch of the so-called Global War on Terror post 9/11,  the responses of security and intelligence communities to combat terrorism have raised serious concerns about the abuse of human rights and the rule of law. Some of the most drastic examples of disregarding legal and practical safeguards manifested themselves in the abuse of Iraqi detainees by American soldiers in Baghdad’s Abu Ghraib detention centre. This had a considerable shock value globally and culminated in finding that prisoners in other facilities in Afghanistan or Guantanamo Bay suffered from similar abuse as well.[1] Other states deport suspects to countries where they face risks of torture or extra-judicial killing, thereby violating the legal obligation of non-refoulment.[2] The use of exceptional and military courts to trial suspects has undermined the independence of the established judiciary, and those individuals highlighting these practices, such as human rights defenders, journalists, or ordinary citizens, have been threatened with repressive measures. In sum, these developments have had and continue to have a negative impact on human rights, the rule of law, good governance, and the effectiveness of countering terrorism around the world.

The Strife Series on Counterterrorism and Human Rights seeks to highlight the delicate balance actors must maintain when developing and implementing counterterrorism strategies. Counterterrorism policies are likely to remain priority concerns for lawmakers and relevant agencies alike in 2017, following yet another year of deadly terrorist attacks throughout the Middle East, Europe, and South-East Asia. In the U.S., President-elect Donald Trump’s statements to resume ‘enhanced interrogation techniques’ such as waterboarding, a method considered to be torture by a wide range of legal experts and human rights organisations, should spell concern. French lawmakers recently voted in favour of extending its state of emergency laws for the fifth time, granting police special powers of search, seizure, and detention. In Bangladesh, counterterrorism operations of the government are increasingly used to crack down on political dissent. The authors in this series offer important insights into some of the philosophical, practical, and case-specific contexts of counterterrorism and its relationship to human rights.

First, Lenoy Barkai poses the fundamental question of why liberal democracies fall into the trap of illegitimate practices when countering terrorism. She argues that the preventive logic states have developed to counter-terrorism does not necessitate human rights violations. Rather, violations should be understood as the ongoing norm-contestation inherent to the identity formation of liberal democracies.

In the second article, Felix Manig examines the reason why states with a similar threat perception of Islamist terrorism have developed starkly contrasting counterterrorism legislation and strategies. He evaluates research which finds that France and the United Kingdom – both Western liberal democracies – have approached counterterrorism differently due to the institutional characteristics of their respective security agencies and the normative context in which they operate.

The third piece of the series, also authored by Felix Manig, highlights some of the less visible but equally worrisome counterterrorism measures imposed by governments through mass surveillance, data collection, and their effect on the right to privacy. Felix examines the problems around proportionate responses, i.e. the intrusive steps governments have taken around the world and reviews the implications this has for everyone using digital communications technology.

In the fourth article, Silvia Sclafani evaluates the implications of the state of emergency laws in France, which has recently been extended until mid-2017. She highlights how security agencies have utilised their extended powers to conduct large-scale arrests and searches and how these practices have a disproportionate effect on citizens with migrant backgrounds. At the same time, she argues that the effect of the laws on security remain questionable.

Finally, Athul Menath illustrates in the fifth piece how counterterrorism policies can be misused by governments wishing to silence political opposition or dissent. More specifically, he highlights how historical political volatility and an escalation in jihadi violence in Bangladesh have correlated with an increasing crackdown on opposition parties and fundamental freedoms.

Happy reading!


Felix is a postgraduate in International Relations at King’s College London. He focuses on conflict resolution strategies, political violence, and human rights. Outside of academia, he is Series Editor at Strife and advocates for human rights defenders across the world at Peace Brigades International. Twitter: @felix_manig


Notes:

[1] Brown, Michelle. “‘Setting the Conditions’ for Abu Ghraib: The Prison Nation Abroad.” American Quarterly 57, no. 3 (2005): 973–97.

[2] Foley, Frank. “Reforming Counterterrorism: Institutions and Organizational Routines in Britain and France.” Security Studies 18, no. 3 (September 18, 2009): 435–78.


Image Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/calinjurylawyer/22082530215

 

 

Filed Under: Blog Article Tagged With: counterterrorism, feature, Strife series

Extremism, environment, and new security dynamics: Strife in conversation with RUSI Director, Dr. Karin von Hippel

June 2, 2016 by Harris Kuemmerle

Interviewed by: Harris Kuemmerle

Yazidi_refugees
Yazidi refugees in Northern Syria. Source: Wikimedia

Harris Kuemmerle – Where do you see climate change fitting within the wider European security dynamic moving forward? Do you feel that European policy makers adequately appreciate the security risks of climate change? Or is it still seen as somewhat of a secondary security issue?

Karin von Hippel – I think we all need to focus much more on the longer term security impacts of climate change. For example, many scientists have argued that the drought in Syria, which began in 2006, contributed to the civil war as it forced many people (notably farmers) to move to urban areas. We need to prepare for similar challenges in the future, especially in parts of the Middle East and Africa, where scarce resources will cause more people to compete, which in turn, will lead to more conflict.

I cannot say for certain if the Europeans appreciate this more or less than others. While it is common to discuss the threat posed by climate change, I’m not sure we are all doing as much as we can today to prepare for different scenarios tomorrow. That really is the crux of the issue. At RUSI, we are establishing a Futures Programme, looking at issues such as migration, robotics, space, climate change, conflict, etc and where and how they may intersect over the next 15 to 20 years, and what this will mean for our common security. Governments, multilateral institutions, academia and the private sector need new tools to anticipate and plan for such uncertainty.

HK – Is it fair to say then that environmental issues haven’t quite internalised themselves within the primary security paradigms and agendas?

KvH – That’s an interesting question. In the United States the military and intelligence communities are very forward leaning in this space. By contrast, the rest of the U.S. government may be lagging, primarily because so many officials end up being consumed by the crises of the moment and have very little spare time to focus on future threats

HK – The integration of coal markets was one of the founding elements of the European project. With that being said, do you feel that increased energy interdependence among member states has the potential to again be a key driver of European integration moving forward? Or could energy instead serve as a driver of disintegration?

KvH – I think that energy issues in Europe have indeed led to some challenges. For example, some countries have a closer relationship with Moscow, and need to rely on Russian oil; and that has made it very difficult within Europe to have unity over issues such as the Ukraine crisis. Honestly, I don’t see energy interdependence operating as an integrating factor within Europe in the near future. Indeed, energy may be more likely to lead to fracturing because of the reliance of some countries on Russian oil supplies.

HK – How would you define the term radicalisation with regards to people joining terrorist or other extremist groups?

KvH – That’s a good question, and it’s similar with the term “fundamentalist”. The way we [at RUSI], and researchers like myself look at it is by asking whether or not such extreme views lead to violence. You could be radical and fundamental in your beliefs, but if you are not going to channel your radical beliefs into violence (especially violence against civilians) then it’s not a security issue. If you are going to use violence as a tool to try to impose your belief system, then radicalism or fundamentalism is a problem.

Ultimately (provided such groups are not violent) people have a right to their beliefs. We may not agree but freedom of expression is a fundamental tenet of any democracy. This doesn’t mean we should be ignoring extremist, non-violent groups – and in fact – we should be thinking of ways of keeping communication channels open with such groups as they may have individuals who decide to leave precisely because such groups are not violent. Hence communication could help security and other officials identify potential terrorists-in-the-making. The challenge is that these relationships are hard to establish because many extremist groups (on the left or right) often do not trust the authorities or outsiders.

HK – What would you suggest have been the greatest strengths and weakness of current US policy with regards to counter terrorism and counter extremism? Why?

KvH – I think everyone is struggling with understanding what radicalises people, especially with ISIL, which is very different from previous terrorist groups. The numbers of people joining ISIL are much higher than those joining groups like al-Qaeda or al-Shabaab. In the past few years, between 1,500 and 2,000 people a month have travelled to join ISIL. In recent months, these numbers have been reduced significantly, to around 200 a month; though that is still way higher than those joining al-Qaeda or al-Shabaab. There is definitely something else going on with ISIL, be it the so-called Caliphate or the extreme violence they employ – we don’t really understand the appeal of ISIL as well as we should. As a result we are making too many untested assumptions, and throwing a whole lot of money on those assumptions. I’m afraid we still need to do more research to understand this issue better.

Ultimately radicalisation is very location-specific, each recruit will have a very specific set of reasons to join, based on local grievances. Recruits from Iraq, Minneapolis, or Birmingham will all have distinct motivations. So you really need to understand what is happening in these particular areas, in addition to understanding the global appeal of these organisations.

HK – Are there other cases of past or present radicalisation that we can draw upon to help tackle groups like ISIS? For example, the case of gang membership in urban areas?

KvH – Yes, these issues are definitely comparable. I was recently at a conference speaking with Gary Slutkin, the founder of Cure Violence, an organisation that has done some great work in reducing gang violence all over the world (it was launched in Chicago, but has since spread globally because their methodology works). They employ interruptors and former gang members to play a role in preventing violence. They borrow a methodology used by health workers to stop the spread of pandemics. So there are definitely successes out there, and techniques which one can borrow from adjacent fields, provided you are able to tweak it to make it work for your purposes.

HK – Given the importance of an enabling environment in facilitating radicalisation, in your opinion, what would be the best way to prevent such an enabling environment in Syria or other such parts of the world?

KvH –ISIL emerged from the civil war in Syria, I think a more robust U.S. approach to Syria would have helped prevent the country deteriorating as much as it has. I understand why President Obama did not want to do more than he was doing, as he was worried about the unintended consequences, as we saw in Libya. On the other hand, I think the U.S. government by 2014 knew many more Syrians than it did Libyans, and it had lots of relationships with people on the ground, through training programmes and other non-lethal support to opposition activists. Had the US bombed around the time the red lines were crossed, I think it would have made a big difference and ISIL would not have been able to capitalise on the space as they did. Though this is of course all conjecture and impossible to prove, it’s just my personal belief.

ISIL has been able to thrive in Syria primarily because they are experts at filling power vacuums and taking advantage of chaotic situations. ISIL’s territorial holdings have changed frequently since 2014 and they have been in sporadic conflict with a range of militias, including opposition fighters, the Kurds, aL-Qaeda, Hezbollah, the Syrian regime, and recently the Russians. Unfortunately, the longer Western powers essentially watch from the sidelines, with minimal assistance, the worse it’s going to get.

HK – In your experience, do you think gender is a concept that is understood and engaged enough in counterterrorism policy and practice? Can you offer an example to highlight this?

KvH – Women play a role in preventing family members from being radicalised. They also can play a negative role and contribute to radicalisation of friends and family members. The interesting thing about ISIL is that more women are joining ISIL than have joined other groups in the past, and we are doing research to try to understand this issue and ultimately understand the way women perceive the phenomenon.

HK – Finally, in your calculations, would a British exit from the EU have a net positive or negative impact on British and European Security?

KvH – We have been looking at the security implications of Brexit at RUSI, and from this perspective, it makes more sense for Britain to remain (e.g., to enhance/build on the common arrest warrant, sharing of intelligence, etc), but at RUSI we do not take a corporate position on Brexit.

 

 

Dr Karin von Hippel became Director-General of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) on 30 November 2015. Karin von Hippel joined RUSI after recently serving as Chief of Staff to General John Allen, Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter-ISIL. Karin has also worked as a Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations and as a Senior Adviser in the Bureau of Counterterrorism at the US Department of State. Prior to that, she worked at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC and at the Centre for Defence Studies at King’s College London. She has also worked for the United Nations and the European Union in Somalia and Kosovo.

Harris Kuemmerle is a doctoral researcher in the Department of War Studies and the Department of Geography at King’s College London. His research focuses on the intra and inter-state hydropolitics of the Indus River. Twitter: @HarrisKuemmerle

Filed Under: Interview Tagged With: #COIN, Al Shabab, al-Qaeda, Brexit, Counter-Extremism, counterterrorism, Energy, Environment, Europe, extremism, feature, foreign policy, ISIL, ISIS, RUSI, Russia, security, UK, USA

Libya’s civil war & the importance of strategic sequencing

May 6, 2016 by Robert Andrea

By: Robert Andrea

Secretary_Kerry_Sits_With_Italian_Foreign_Minister_Gentiloni_and_UN_Special_Representative_for_Libya_Kobler_at_the_Italian_Foreign_Ministry_in_Rome_(23090680244)
US Secretary of State John Kerry at a 2015 meeting for the future of Libya in Rome. Source: Wikimedia

One of the most overlooked aspects in strategic deliberations is that of sequencing. It is much more common for the ‘what’ and the ‘how’ of a policy to receive the lion’s share of analysis. Despite this, the order in which the segments of a strategy are implemented can often be just as important. And while this may not always be the case, the cost of not giving due consideration to sequence can be painfully high. The ongoing Libyan Civil War provides a contemporary case study into how important sequencing can end up being in the pursuit of strategic interests.

Concerning Libya

In the immediate term, Western states appear to see (based on the different types of policy approaches on the table) two broadly defined interests in Libya. One is resolving the civil war that has been ongoing since 2014. The second is counterterrorism, primarily with regard to the increasing presence in Libya of the so-called Islamic State, but also of groups like the AQ-linked Ansar al-Sharia.

In terms of the civil war, the international community (particularly the United States and European Union) is committed to a diplomatic resolution of the conflict via the UN-led peace process. Dealing with the counterterrorism issue, on the other hand, will almost definitely involve a more kinetic approach.

Without the proper sequencing of these respective policies, however, neither issue will be solved effectively. Worse still, the situation on the ground would likely deteriorate significantly if the major actors fail to appreciate this.

Civil war

Following the overthrow of Colonel Muammar al-Qaddafi by NATO-backed rebels in 2011, Libya has struggled to rebuild effective state institutions, culminating in another civil war in 2014. This current conflict has essentially been fought between two rival entities – both claiming to be the legitimate government of Libya – each with their respective loyalists.

On one hand, there is the General National Congress. Often referred to as the Tripoli government or the Libya Dawn Coalition, the General National Congress (GNC) is comprised largely of Islamist militias and political blocs including the Justice and Construction party – considered by some to be the Libyan branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. The GNC and its allied militias are backed by Qatar, Turkey, and Sudan.

The rival of the GNC is the Tobruk-based House of Representatives, alternatively known as the Council of Deputies or the Tobruk government. Comprised of supposedly secular-leaning opponents of the Islamist-dominated GNC, the House of Representatives (HoR) is internationally recognized as the legitimate elected government of Libya. The HoR also maintains the loyalty of General Khalifa Haftar and his loyalists in the Libyan National Army.

In an effort to end hostilities, a U.N.-led diplomatic effort has produced a roadmap towards reconciliation.

In January of this year, a Government of National Accord (GNA) was announced, which, it is hoped, will unite the warring factions. For security reasons, the GNA (led by chairman and prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj) was not able to enter Libya until 30 March of this year, when he landed in Tripoli. In a somewhat surprising move, the Tripoli-based GNC announced shortly thereafter that it would remove itself from power in favor of the U.N.-backed unity government.

As of yet, the HoR has not ratified the agreement, as certain clauses would call for Haftar to step down as their army chief.

New place. Same threat. Same policy.

Taking advantage of the chaos during the civil war, the Islamic State has managed to establish a major foothold in Libya. This presence includes, but is not limited to, control of the coastal city Sirte. Increasingly concerned about these developments, Western states have been mulling more direct military options to combat the growing jihadist threat in Libya.

Earlier this year, a U.S. airstrike against an Islamic State camp in Sabratha, western Libya, killed around 50 people, including Noureddine Chouchane. Chouchane is thought to have been a key player in the two attacks last year targeting a museum and a beach resort in Tunisia. The attacks have been claimed by the Islamic State. However, this was a fairly isolated operation and there has yet to be a sustained Western airstrike programme conducted in Libya.

In terms of ground forces, part of the agreement that led to the GNA includes plans for an Italian-led multinational force of 6,000 troops to be deployed to Libya. It is still unclear what part of that force will be specifically devoted to counterterrorist operations and, for now, it is still a theoretical force. There doesn’t appear to be any reports of conventional Western troops actually in Libya currently, though multiple reports do place U.S., U.K., and French special operations forces in the country.

The foregoing reveals nothing to suggest that the counterterrorism programme in Libya will consist of anything tactically different than the ones implemented (mostly by the United States) in places like Yemen, Syria, or Somalia: Drone/airstrikes as well as occasional direct action raids by special operations forces (SOF). As we have learned time and time again though, airstrikes and SOF operations alone are usually insufficient in countering jihadist insurgencies. In the absence of a sizeable deployment of conventional Western troops, partnership with local ground forces would additionally be required to make these airstrike/SOF programmes effective.

If examined purely at a tactical level, the disparate nature of the two policies (conflict resolution and counterterrorism) would theoretically allow them to be pursued concurrently. That would be a very serious mistake – doing so would essentially ignore sequencing considerations and would likely end in catastrophe.

Enter the role of sequencing

It is critical to the long term effectiveness of both the political solution to the civil war and the West’s counterterrorism programme in Libya that the diplomatic portion of the strategy be conducted first. Only after the civil war has ended and the Libyan factions reach a modicum of unity, should counterterrorist operations against the Islamic State and other groups begin.

Without reaching a settlement to the civil war first, there will not be a single unified Libyan state to serve as a local military partner to foreign-led counterterrorism efforts. Rather, the prevailing status of a martially factionalized Libya would be the environment in which these counterterrorism operations would have to take place. In such a situation, the West would probably be forced to pick a side in the domestic conflict to act as its partner. This would undoubtedly result in an even more protracted civil war. Only now, it would be a civil war in which Western forces might find themselves as a target.

In the event of such a scenario, it’s more than likely that the Western powers would choose to side with the HoR and, specifically, Haftar over the GNC. For one, the HoR and Haftar are favoured by close partners of the West in the Middle East, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Furthermore, the Libyan National Army, under the command of Haftar, has proven to be the most capable fighting force in the country and has already shown a willingness to fight the Islamic State.

However, Haftar is also predisposed to fighting Islamists in general. This includes the Islamist-dominated GNC, which he labels (in its entirety) as terrorists. A foreign intervention siding with their chief rival would almost assuredly incense and seriously threaten the GNC.

Not only would this be a death blow to the diplomatic efforts towards national reconciliation, it would also seriously hamper counterterrorism operations. If they were to feel threatened by an HoR backed with Western military support, it is more than conceivable that some of the more hardline elements in the GNC might make common cause with the very jihadist organisations being targeted. This should not be viewed as a hypothetical. Certain GNC-aligned elements already cooperate from time to time with these jihadist groups.

Take the Benghazi Revolutionary Shura Council as an example. The Benghazi Revolutionary Shura Council (BRSC) is one of the primary elements fighting Haftar’s forces in the east and has often allied with the GNC. Comprised of multiple Islamist militias, the BRSC is led by Ansar al-Sharia in Libya (ASL). Both ASL, the group behind the 2012 attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, and the BRSC at large have periodically cooperated with the Islamic State against Haftar’s forces.

This places the GNC only one degree of separation away from the Islamic State. This is not to say that in the event of a foreign counterterrorism intervention that the GNC would swear the bay’ah to the caliphate en masse. It is entirely plausible however, that at least some of these forces decide to enhance their level of cooperation with the Islamic State if they were to perceive the West’s backing of their arch rival, Haftar, as a threat.

Such a strategic blunder would leave foreign counterterrorism forces facing an already capable enemy, but now potentially reinforced with thousands of new fighters.

If the aforementioned scenario were to occur, the chances for a political settlement to the Libyan Civil War would evaporate almost instantly and the jihadist threat that Libya already poses to the West (particularly to Europe) would increase drastically. Or, to put it succinctly: It would be an unmitigated strategic failure for the West.

To their credit, both the Western states and the U.N.-supported unity government are trying their best to properly sequence their strategies in Libya. Italy, who will be leading the eventual international troop deployment, has said it will refuse to lead the operation until the GNA is ratified by all parties and the Libyan military command structure is clarified. Even more recently, the GNA itself called on all military factions to hold off on any military operation against Sirte until a unified military structure is established.

So it would seem that, for now, the policymakers handling the Libya file in the West are aware of the importance of taking sequence into account.

Conclusion

All of this is not to say that utilising proper sequencing will guarantee success in Libya. The road ahead contains a veritable minefield of challenges to reaching some semblance of stability. In such a complicated political and security landscape, there is nothing to say that the peace process and/or counterterrorism operations in Libya might not face serious challenges in the future. That said, while sequencing might not be the most stimulating aspect of policy analysis, as we see in the case of the Libyan Civil War, failure to fully appreciate its necessity could lead to disastrous consequences.

 

 

Robert Andrea is an incoming MA student in War Studies at King’s College London. His research interests include U.S. and Iranian foreign policy, diplomatic strategy, and proxy warfare. He can be found on Twitter at @Bob__Andrea

Filed Under: Blog Article Tagged With: counterterrorism, Daesh, Diplomacy, France, ISIL, ISIS, Libya, strategy, UK, us

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